Tired of Tire Fixing

BREAKING NEWS: The House has voted to save America from going over the fiscal cliff.

 

By: Jason Colella, Co-founder and Sr. Political Editor

The Provisions

1. Estate Tax is raised to 40% exempt is the first 5 million dollars
2. Capital gain tax is increased to 20%
3. Income tax is raised on people making over $400,000 to 39.6%
4. Extends long term unemployment benefits
5. 2% payroll tax cut lapses returning rate to 6.2%
6. Delays across the board spending cuts for two months
7. Permanently adjusts the Alterative Minimum Tax

For the first time in my life I have to say I agree with Congressmen Darrell Issa (R-CA49) -- well for the most part. Unlike him, I would vote for the bill. I agree with his fundamental point. The bill does save us from falling off the Fiscal cliff, but it does not do more and that is where I have my problem with it. I view this whole thing as a car with a flat tire. Congress always fixes the tire the same way. It never bothers to go to the store and get a new tire; instead, they just add a patch to the tire to the point where the entire tire is covered in patches. New leaks aren’t from new holes but are rather from faulty patches. The Fiscal Cliff was not caused by some rouge nail, but it was caused by a worn out patch -- the 2011 Debt Ceiling Debacle. They never go to the tire store because they can’t agree where to go. They are too bullheaded to fix problems; instead, they can only agree to postpone their decisions and even that takes an act of God. As Congressman Charles Rangel (D-NY15) said during debate “we created this monster,” he is absolutely right. Congress can’t agree it seems unless they are hanging upside down over a cliff with someone on the ledge slowly cutting the rope they are hanging by. This leads to these crazy short term fixes that do absolutely nothing to solve the countries long term issues. Can we please sit down and discuss long-term issues -- you know reform the tax code and figure out sensible cuts to spending. I don’t care if it hurts your reelection chances do what is right and needed for America. Fix our problems. Maybe you would even find voters appreciate true compromise, solutions and profound meaningful change.

Freshmen Introductions

The following are some of the freshmen of the 113^th Congress. There are 12 new senators: 1 independent, 3 republicans, and 8 democrats. There will be 2 additional senators joining the list as well to replace former senators Jim DeMint (R-SC) and Daniel Inouye (D-HW). Inouye’s replacement is yet to be decided while DeMint is being replaced by Tim Scott. These 14 senators will be introduced to FPP’s readers in the next week in a new segment called Freshmen Introductions. I have also listed the names of members of the house to be who won seats currently held by members of the other party.

US Senators
Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)
Jeff Flake (R-AZ)
Joe Donnelly (D-IN)
Chris Murphey (D-CT)
Mazie Hirono (D-HI)
Martin Heinrich (D-NM)
Angus King (I-ME)
Tim Kaine (D-VA)
Ted Cruz (R-TX)
Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
Deb Fischer (R-OK)
Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND)

Change of Party  House Freshmen
Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ1)
Tom Cotton (R-AR4)
Ami Bera (D-CA7)
Julia Brownley (D-CA26)
Raul Ruiz (D-CA36)
Scott Peters (D-CA52)
Patrick Murphy (D-FL18)
Joe Garcia (D-FL26)
Tammy Duckworth (D-IL8)
Brad Schneider (D-IL10)
Bill Foster (D-IL11)
Cheri Bustos (D-IL17)
Jackie Walorski (R-IN2)
Andy Barr (R-KY6)
John Delaney (D-MD6)
Rick Nolan (D-MN8)
Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH1)
Ann McLane Kuster (D-NH2)
Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY18)
Dan Maffei (D-NY24)
Chris Collins (R-NY27)
Richard Hudson (R-NC8)
Mark Meadows (R-NC11)
George Holding (R-NC12)
Markwayne Mullin (R-OK2)
Keith Rothfus (R-PN12)
Pete Gallego (D-TX23)

Mobilize

Tomorrow is the day; the race has been run; the fight has been fought; it comes down to you, information, and your vote.

You, yeah you the reader, are the voter – the one who makes the difference. This means you have to vote. So, go vote tomorrow! But, it also means if you have an issue you strongly support or a candidate you like today and tomorrow is your one and only chance in election season 2012 to show the electorate your passion. If you have time go volunteer, if you can’t I am sure there is a phonebank somewhere  that would love your help. If that’s doesn't float your boat. There is always social media; you can tweet, write on your timeline, or do whatever social media thing you do (like blog). It is all for one simple idea GOTV (GET OUT THE VOTE) which brings up another point make sure that everyone else votes as well; the government is designed to represent the people, so the people need to voice their opinions.

Information is also pivotal, and, as much as I want you to go vote, I don’t want the blind leading the blind. So, please look up the candidates; find out what they stand for. For the ballot proposals and mileages, learn the pros and cons of each. I know so many people that when they get to things like Circuit Court Judge or City Council they will just simply vote for the man or women with cooler name. Don’t do that, please, look them up so when you show up it you can fill in bubbles and leave. We are the only ones who can institute the change we want to see in the world. SO PLEASE GO VOTE!

Momentum versus the Map

By: William Snyder, Managing editor Fourth Party Politics

On Tuesday the country comes to a crossroads, and one of two dramatically different paths will be taken. The race for 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue features two distinctly different views of how government should play a role in the lives of citizens. One party wants to make government so small the only thing it can regulate is a women’s vagina. The other wants to continue to rebuild the economy after the financial crisis and raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans to pay for the programs that most benefit middle class Americans. With a falling unemployment rate and job creation for over 30 consecutive months, the daunting task of removing a sitting president becomes even more difficult for Governor Romney. Only once since 1900 has a political party been taken out of power after holding just one term in the White House, Jimmy Carter and the Democrats in 1980. Will Mitt Romney’s say or do anything approach to be elected President gain the trust of swing voters in Toledo and Orlando or will voters come to realize Mr. Romney’s history of being a chronic political flip-flopper and cause a trust issue with moderates in the end?  

It has become clear that following the first debate in Denver last month Mitt Romney had the momentum while President Obama had the map and his campaign was trying to run out the clock up by three late in the fourth quarter. Enter Hurricane Sandy as a true October surprise. The President was pushed into the national spotlight to deal with an historic crisis which for a period of two days completely froze the race and the momentum. Up until last week, when the race was frozen in place, this race was starting to shape up a lot like that of the 1980 election when Reagan made a huge surge in the closing weeks of the campaign to overtake Jimmy Carter. Following the aftermath of Sandy, polling has been somewhat limited but suggests a race closer to that of 2004 with an incumbent narrowly edging out the victory. Based on all of the public polling in the last week the challenge still lies with the Romney campaign to demonstrate they can get to 270 electoral votes. It is still clear that the map and the math favor the President because he has more paths to 270 and they are much clearer paths. In all likelihood the race comes down to two states; Virginia, and Ohio. If Governor Romney wants any chance what so ever he must win Virginia and recent polls have shown the President with a slim margin of error lead. The simplest path for Romney is to hold the south and win Ohio then all he has to do is take New Hampshire where the trusted local poll conducted by WMUR has the race tied. However it appears that Ohio is becoming more of a stretch for the Romney campaign. Ohio is still the simplest way and maybe the most competitive but I think the reason they are looking at other options like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota is because they know they can’t count on Ohio. One of the things you don’t hear the pundits talking about is how drastically Mitt Romney is going to over preform John McCain across the board in both solid blue and solid red states which is why national tracking polls show such a tight race. The last few days polls have been released showing Romney gaining ground in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota, but the question is can he really win there? Personally I think those states will be tight races possibly within 3 or 4 points but it’s Lucy and the football close and not realistic for a Romney win in those states.

Predictions

President:
Obama 49.2% 277 electoral votes
Romney 48.9% 261 electoral votes
Johnson 1.3%
Stein 0.3%
Goode 0.2%
Anderson 0.1%

State with closest winning margin:
Virginia. I have been back and forth between Virginia and Colorado on this one for the last couple of weeks. Recent polling suggests former congressman and constitution party presidential nominee Virgil Goode could have an impact in his home state and take votes away from Romney. A recent Washington Post/ABC poll had Goode polling in 2% of the vote

Senate:
Current: D51 R47 I2 (both caucus with Democrats)
Prediction: D51 R47 I2 (both expected to caucus with Democrats)
Democrats: Pick-ups: MA, ME, IN Holds: CA, CT, DE, FL, HI, MD, MI, MN, MO, MT, NJ, NM, NY, OH, PA, RI, VA, VT, WA, WV
Republicans Pick-ups: ND, WI Holds: AZ, MS, NE, NV, TN, TX, UT, WY,

House:

Current: D191 R241
Prediction: Democrats net 4-10 seats and Republicans keep overwhelming control of the house.

One would think Democrats would have the upper hand in more house elections after 2010, but state Republican parties had control of redistricting in many states which will make it a much tougher task for Democrats to take back the house in the coming years. The untold tale of this election is that Republicans and tea partyers are likely to strengthen their already strong hold on state legislature.

Yours in Democracy, -William  Snyder

Political Theory Prediction

 It is time to visit the land of political prediction heaven. This article will stay here and then try to explain why we don’t live and vote there. The article explains the way the predictions are calculated, and then the next article will be about why I can assure you my predictions will be inaccurate.

The idea behind the article is that each election is predictable and can be guessed hundreds of years in advance assuming a two party political system and making four simple assumptions. Assumption one, an incumbent President will always be reelected; this doesn’t always happen just ask Jimmy Carter about that. Two, every president’s successor will be a member of the opposite political party. Not always true either, George H.W. Bush is thankful for that. Third is the idea that the opposing party will always win the midterm election. This is not true always either because the Republicans actually gained seats in 2002 while George W. Bush was in office. Fourth is the assumption that if a party wins the presidency they will also benefit from the coat tail effect; and subsequently, they will win control of both the House and that year’s Senate Class Election. If all four of the assumptions were never broken, a pattern for each group emerges. In these patterns, R stands for Republicans and D for Democrats. For the President the pattern is easy, it is in fact the pattern that all the others are based off of according to our assumptions; it is DDRRDD... In the senate, each class follows the pattern of DDDDRRRRDDDD… The pattern in the US House of Representatives is DDRDRRDR…

This would dictate that Obama gets reelected and Democrats gain control of the House and also maintain control of Senate Class One which they should, hypothetically, lose control of in the 2030 Election. Hypothetically, the 2030’s will be a great decade for the Republican Party while the 2020’s will be great for the Democrats. The Republican will regain Senate Class Two in 2014 and lose it in 2038. The Democrats will regain Senate class three in 2022. The party of the president is also guaranteed a full control of congress during their first two years of their presidency and of their second term. In the long term, it is a washout which makes perfect sense; an equal rule of Democrats and Republicans is the long run equilibrium of politics.

President

                Democratic (2009-2017, 2025-2033, 2041-2049, 2057-2065)

                Republican (2017-2025, 2033-2041, 2049-2057, 2065-2073)

Senate Class One

                Democrats (2007-2031, 2055-2073)

                Republicans (2031-2055)

Senate Class Two

                Democrats (2009-2015, 2039-2063)

                Republicans (2015-2039, 2063-2087)

Senate Class Three

                Democrats (2023-2047, 2071-2095)

                Republicans (2011-2023, 2047-2071)

US House of Representatives

                Democrats (2013-2015, 2019-2021, 2023-2027, 2029-2031, 2035-2037, 2039-2043, 2045-2047, 2051-2053, 2055-2059, 2061-2063, 2067-2069, 2071-2073)

                Republicans (2011-2013, 2015-2019, 2021-2023, 2027-2029, 2031-2035, 2037-2039, 2043-2045, 2047-2051, 2053-2055, 2059-2061, 2063-2067, 2069-2071)