Freshman Introductions: Elizabeth Warren and Heidi Heitkamp

Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)

Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) of Massachusetts became the first female to represent the Commonwealth in the Senate with her victory this past November over Scott Brown. Before being elected, Warren served as a Harvard Law School professor specializing in bankruptcy law and personal finance. Warren gained national prominence as a consumer protection advocate which led to her being appointed to help setup the new U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in 2010. Warren, however, was not tapped as the bureaus new director due to strong opposition from both Wall St. and congressional Republicans. Liberal groups were extremely upset with President Obama who was unwilling to fight a nomination battle with Senate Republicans. In late 2008, Warren was appointed by Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid to chair the Congressional Oversight Panel which oversaw the implementation of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act (TARP oversight). Warren was assigned a seat on the Senate Banking Committee.

Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND)

When incumbent Democratic Senator Kent Conrad decided to retire, it was thought as if it were a lost cause for Democrats to retain control of the seat. However, in the closest Senate Election of the year Heidi Heitkamp defeated Rick Berg by a mere 2,994 votes; less than 1% of the total vote. Heidi is a native of North Dakota and earned her B.A. from the University of North Dakota before attending law school at Lewis and Clark College in Oregon. After college, she worked as an attorney for the EPA and for the North Dakota Tax Commissioner’s office. When her boss Kent Conrad decided to run for US Senate, Heitkamp ran for his job -- North Dakota Tax Commissioner. She easily won the election garnering 65% of the vote. In 1992, she decided to run for State Attorney General and was easily elected to the position where she would serve until 2000 when she lost her bid to become governor to now fellow senator John Hoeven. Between her run for senate and her failed Governor bid she served as director of the Dakota Gasification Company.

She is a fairly moderate Democrat whose views fit perfectly in a Red State such as North Dakota. She is in favor of the Keystone Pipeline, yet opposes Fracking. She supports Obamcare, but thinks there are many parts that need to be re-written. She supports a Balanced Budget Amendment and the Buffet Rule.

Freshman Introductions: Chris Murphy and Mazie Hirono

Chris Murphy (D-CT)

Longtime former Democrat turned Independent Joe Lieberman retired instead of seeking reelection. The republican candidate again was multimillionaire Linda McMahon; she lost in 2010 to Richard Blumenthal although he was vastly outspent by her. The Democrats choose Chris Murphy. Murphy went on to defeat McMahon receiving 55% of the vote. At the age of 39, he is the youngest member of the US Senate. He was born, raised and educated in Connecticut receiving a JD from Uconn. His first political office was a seat on a local Zoning Commission in 1997 from there he quickly proved not only ambitious but highly capable getting elected to the State House, State Senate and finally the US House in  2006. In that race, he easily defeated (56% to 44%) long time Rep. Congresswomen Nancy Johnson, who had been in congress since 1983. As a congressman, Murphy had a solid liberal record scoring well from most liberal organization and issue groups. He has fought for ethics reforms, promised to help pass filibuster reform, co-wrote the HR 3200 (Obamacare), and has proposed many bills that came as results of problems from his home district. For example, after a brutal home invasion/murder, he suggested making Home Invasion a federal crime. In the 2012 election, McMahon played hairball bringing up Murphy’s troubled financial history. He had been foreclosed upon because he forgot to pay his mortgage. He, however, refinanced to advert the issue. McMahon tried insinuating the reason he was able to was he had to support the bank in congress; it was a so called a “special interest loan.”

Mazie Hirono (D-HW)

Mazie Hirono becomes the first female Senator from Hawaii, the first Senator born in Japan, and the nation's first Buddhist elected to the Senate. The seat was vacated by 88 year old Daniel Akaka, who decided not to run for re-election to a fourth full term. Before entering politics, she practiced law in Honolulu; she is a graduate of Georgetown Law School. In 1980, Hirono was elected to the Hawaii House of Representatives where she served until 1995. In 1994, Hirono entered statewide politics when she ran for Lieutenant Governor. She easily defeated her primary challenger to win the Democratic nomination. She won the General Election with just 37% of the vote in crowded four candidate field. Hirono ran for re-election in 1998 and defeated Republican State Senator Stan Koki 5,254 votes. In 2002, Hirono narrowly won the Democratic primary for Governor defeating State Representative Ed Case by 2,613 votes. She went on to lose to Linda Lingle in the General Election. After a four year political hiatus, Hirono ran for Hawaii's 2^nd Congressional District being vacated by Ed Case, who she had beaten in the 2002 Democratic gubernatorial primary. In what was another close election, she bested 9 other Democrats to win the primary by a mere 845 votes. She easily won the General and was elected twice more in 2008 and 2010. In this year’s Senate election, she defeated two all too familiar opponents: Ed Case and Linda Lingle, but easily defeated them both. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid announced in December that Hirono will serve on the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Freshman Introductions: Tammy Baldwin and Joe Donnelly

Joe Donnelly

Joe Donnelly has been elected to replace popular longtime Republican Senator Dick Lugar (R-IN). Lugar had lost in an unexpected primary upset to a Tea Party backed uber-conservative -- Indiana State Treasurer Richard Murdock. Murdock sealed his and Donnelly fate with a comment about abortion but it may have cost Murdock the race. Joe Donnelly, however, is no champion of pro-choice ideals; he, himself, is a strong prolife Congressman getting high marks from Right to Life and other prolife organizations. Donnelly graduated from Norte Dame Law School and became a lawyer in Indiana, a profession he held until he started a small printing and stamping business in the mid-1990s. In 2006, he announced his candidacy for congress for a second time; he had lost in 2004 to the same incumbent he would upset two years later. Since his swearing in, Donnelly has been a member of the conservative faction of House Democrats – the Blue Dog Caucasus. This conservatism has given him one of the most independent records in congress. He voted both to end DADT and to keep it on separate occasions. In the senate, Donnelly will serve on the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry, the Senate Committee on Armed Services, and the Senate Special Committee on Aging.

Tammy BaldwinTammy Baldwin not only becomes Wisconsin first women Senator, but she is also the first openly LGBT person to be elected to the Upper House. Baldwin was first elected to political office in 1986 as a member of the Dane County Board of Supervisors. In 1992, she ran for a seat in the 78th District of the Wisconsin State Assembly. She won with 59% of the vote; her nearest opponent received just 23%. Baldwin would go on to be re-elected in both ’94 and ’96. In 1998 Scott Klug announced he would retire at the end of his term, which prompted Baldwin to run for his 2nd congressional district seat. She would go on to win and be reelected relatively easily 6 times. Baldwin’s 2012 Senate victory came as a bit of a surprise to many as she is much more progressive than your average cheese head. Baldwin’s opponent was moderate former four term Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson. While in the House, Baldwin was consistently rated as one of the most progressive voices in D.C. She was one of the loudest opponents of the Bush administration and in 2007 introduced legislation to impeach former Vice President Dick Cheney and Attorneys General Alberto Gonzales. Because she served for fourteen years in the House of Representatives, she will have the most seniority in the freshman class of senators due to Senate rules.

Freshman Introductions: Deb Fischer and Angus King

Angus King

Angus King is the first ever Independent elected to serve in the Senate from Maine. He follows in the footsteps of Republican Senator Olympia Snowe, who announced she would not run for re-election earlier this year, citing frustration due to partisanship. King previously served as the two term Independent Governor of the state between 1995 and 2003. King will caucus with the Democrats once sworn in; meaning there will be 55 Senators in the caucus a pickup of two seats from the 112th congress. Before serving as Governor, King was the host of a statewide political talk show on public television and served as an assistant on the staff of Maine Democratic Senator William Hathaway in the mid 70’s. During the 80’s King worked for several companies that were developers of alternative and renewable energy including founding his own company which worked to conserve electricity at commercial and industrial businesses throughout New England. A major focus of King’s Campaign was his promise to fight for government reforms including campaign finance, filibuster reform, and the No Budget, No Pay Act.

Deb Fischer 

With the retirement of Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Democrats basically lost all hope at being able to retain his seat. In a last ditch effort Democrats persuaded former Nebraska Senator Bob Kerrey to come home to his native state and run for his former seat. It was a short-term fix as Kerrey was pegged as out of touch with his former constituents because he had since moved away from his native Nebraska. The Republican nominee, Deb Fischer, easily won the election. Fischer was born, raised, and educated in Nebraska and has worked since College on her husband’s Cattle Ranch. She was first elected to political office in 2004 when she was elected to the Nebraska State Legislature. She was vastly outspent (10 to 1) in her primary but managed to pull off a major upset in part due to a last minute endorsement from Sarah Palin. She is in favor of disbanding the EPA, repealing Obamacare, and helped lead the opposition in the State Legislature against imposing a statewide smoking ban. She is strongly prolife and anti-gay marriage. The election of Fischer marks the end of an era of a moderate voice in Nebraska politics; she will bring what is a growing feature of Republican Party -- hardline tea party ideology.

Freshman Introductions: Jeff Flake and Ted Cruz

Jeff Flake

Jon Kyl’s replacement has been found for the Arizona Senate Seat -- Congressman Jeff Flake. Congressman Flake, a Mormon, represents a largely Mormon and affluent area of Phoenix – the eastern suburbs. Flake attended Brigham Young University and then worked in Africa at various Mormon and other philanthropic organizations. He then served as Executive Director of Goldwater Institute in Arizona. He was elected to the US House in 2000 and has been reelected easily every time sense then. Congressmen Flake is known for being “rogue” on many issues voting frequently against his own party. For instance, he was one 15 republicans to vote in favor of ending DADT, but he is opposed to gay marriage. Flake is strong anti-abortionist being highly regarded and rated by Right to Life. He is most known, though, for his ardent opposition to pork barrel spending and earmarks going so far as publishing a newsletter with what he thinks is the pork barrel project of week. He is also known for instituting what is called “the flake hour” in which he forces congressmen to explain why congress should pay for those pet projects; he is strong fiscal conservative who voted against Bush’s TARP. Flake is a fierce fighter for privacy along with one of the few republicans to come at against the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq voting against Obama’s surge in Afghanistan.

Ted Cruz

Ted Cruz was born in Calgary, Canada to a couple that had met at the University of Texas Austin. His mom was from Delaware and his father was a Cuban immigrant who had fought in the Cuban Revolution for Castro but would later come to oppose the Castro regime. Ted Cruz proved to be an excellent debater and parliamentarian wining or placing in many high level competitions while attending Princeton undergrad or Harvard Law where he received a J.D. Magna Cum Laude. After a number of years working in private practice, teaching at UT Austin, or working various federal Government jobs, Mr. Cruz became the Solicitor General of Texas, a position he held until 2008. While serving as Solicitor General, Cruz successfully defended the state in many cases that showcased his and his state's social conservatism such as the Ten Commandments on the grounds of the state capital or “under God” in the Pledge of Allegiance.

Freshmen Introductions

The following are some of the freshmen of the 113^th Congress. There are 12 new senators: 1 independent, 3 republicans, and 8 democrats. There will be 2 additional senators joining the list as well to replace former senators Jim DeMint (R-SC) and Daniel Inouye (D-HW). Inouye’s replacement is yet to be decided while DeMint is being replaced by Tim Scott. These 14 senators will be introduced to FPP’s readers in the next week in a new segment called Freshmen Introductions. I have also listed the names of members of the house to be who won seats currently held by members of the other party.

US Senators
Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)
Jeff Flake (R-AZ)
Joe Donnelly (D-IN)
Chris Murphey (D-CT)
Mazie Hirono (D-HI)
Martin Heinrich (D-NM)
Angus King (I-ME)
Tim Kaine (D-VA)
Ted Cruz (R-TX)
Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
Deb Fischer (R-OK)
Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND)

Change of Party  House Freshmen
Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ1)
Tom Cotton (R-AR4)
Ami Bera (D-CA7)
Julia Brownley (D-CA26)
Raul Ruiz (D-CA36)
Scott Peters (D-CA52)
Patrick Murphy (D-FL18)
Joe Garcia (D-FL26)
Tammy Duckworth (D-IL8)
Brad Schneider (D-IL10)
Bill Foster (D-IL11)
Cheri Bustos (D-IL17)
Jackie Walorski (R-IN2)
Andy Barr (R-KY6)
John Delaney (D-MD6)
Rick Nolan (D-MN8)
Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH1)
Ann McLane Kuster (D-NH2)
Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY18)
Dan Maffei (D-NY24)
Chris Collins (R-NY27)
Richard Hudson (R-NC8)
Mark Meadows (R-NC11)
George Holding (R-NC12)
Markwayne Mullin (R-OK2)
Keith Rothfus (R-PN12)
Pete Gallego (D-TX23)

Live Blog: Election Night Coverage

Obama: 303
Romney: 206
270 To Win

BREAKING NEWS - Obama wins the election after claiming victory in Ohio.

Tonight the country comes to a crossroads, and one of two dramatically different paths will be taken. The race for 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue features two distinctly different views of how government should play a role in the lives of citizens. One party wants to make government so small it will drown in the bathtub. The other wants to continue to rebuild the economy after the financial crisis and raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans to pay for the programs that most benefit middle class Americans. With a falling unemployment rate and job creation for over 30 consecutive months, the daunting task of removing a sitting president becomes even more difficult for Gov. Romney. Only once since 1900 has a political party been taken out of power after holding just one term in the White House, Jimmy Carter and the Democrats in 1980.

1:01 - We can now give the President the other electoral vote from Maine's 2nd congressional district and award him Virginia’s 13 electoral votes. Also Mitt Romney will carry Alaska and its 3 electoral votes. Tammy Baldwin has also been declared the winner in the Wisconsin senate race; she will be the first openly gay senator.

12:11 - Obama picks up Colorado and its 9 EV

11:56 -- Democratic Senators Cantwell (WA) and Feinstein (CA) are reelected.

11:53 -- Henrich (D) of New Mexico is elected to US Senate while Flake (R) is victorious in Arizona.

11:48 - Obama picks up Nevada and its 6 EV

11:16 - BREAKING NEWS - Obama wins Ohio and is re-elected president

11:15 - Romney wins North Carolina, Obama takes Iowa

11:02 - The time is now 11 o’clock in the east and new polls have just closed on the west coast. We can project Romney will carry the state of Idaho and its 4 electoral votes. Also we can project that President Obama will carry the states of California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington totaling 78 electoral votes.
Remaining states yet to be called:
Ohio
Florida
Colorado
Michigan
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Iowa
Nevada
Alaska

11:00 --Tim Kaine wins the Senate race in Virginia replacing fellow democratic Webb.

10:47 - We can now project that President Obama will carry the state of Minnesota which has 10 electoral votes.

10:40 - Mitt Romney wins Arizona and its 11 electoral votes.

10:21 -- Republicans pick up NE. Senate State reducing Dems gains to two on the night.

10:12 -- BREAKING NEWS: Romney wins Missouri.

10:11 -- Senator Claire McCaskill is reelected over Todd Akin in Missouri Senate Race.

10:04 - The time is now 10 o’clock in the east and new polls have just closed totaling 23 electoral votes. We can project Romney will carry the states of Montana and Utah totaling 9 electoral votes. Also standby polls are closed in Nevada and Iowa and we characterize those races as too early to call.

9:51 --BREAKING NEWS: Elizabeth Warren wins Ma. Senate bringing Dem up to plus three for the night.

9:50 -- BREAKING NEWS: Obama wins New Hampshire.

9:48 --BREAKING NEWS: Joe Donnelly wins Indiana Senate bringing Dem up to plus two for the night.

9:44 -- Klobuchar (D) of Mn., Brasso (R) of WY., Cruz (R) of TX., Brown (D) of Ohio, and Whicker (R) of MS. all can be called for winning their senate races. So far the Democrats have picked up one senate seat. We can call Democratic victory in NH Gubernatorial and Republican victory in North Dakota Gubernatorial

9:31 - BREAKING NEWS: Obama wins Wisconsin

9:25 – BREAKING NEWS: We can comfortably call the State of Pennsylvania for Obama and FPP can report Democrats will retain the Senate.

9:16 -- Michigan can be called for Obama while North Dakota can be called for Romney. More Senate races can be called Manchin (D) of West Virginia, Nelson (D) of Florida, Stabenow of Michigan, Gillbrand (D) of New York, Whitehouse (D) of Rhode Island, Mendez of New Jersey, Casey in Pennsylvania and Murphy (D) of Connecticut.

9:02 - The time is now 9 o’clock in the east and a slew polls have just closed totaling 153 electoral votes. We can project Romney will carry the states of Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska (4 of 5) South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming totaling 62 electoral votes. Also we can project that President Obama will carry the states of Maine (3 of 4) New York and New Mexico totaling 37 electoral votes.

8:48 – We can call the Maine Senate Race to Angus King, an independent who will caucus with the democrats; he was expected to win and won fairly easily. Senator Cardin (D) of Maryland has been projected victorious along with Senator Carper (D) of Delaware.

8:31 - Polls just closed moment’s ago in Arkansas were we can project it six electoral votes will go for Mitt Romney.

8:15 – Florida is moving toward Obama . NC is currently in Obama corner with 9% reporting while Virginia currently shows a Romney lead. Obama also has a sizable lead in Ohio with 1% percent reporting also he is winning the white working vote there. Bob Corker is projected winner of TN. Senate.

8:13 - Projection: Romney wins Georgia 16EV

8:05 - The time is now 8 o’clock in the east and a slew polls have just closed totaling 172 electoral votes. We can project Romney will carry the states of Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Tennessee totaling 33 electoral votes. Also we can project that president Obama will carry the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Washington, DC totaling 72 electoral votes.

Election Day Breakfast Menu

Here’s your Tuesday morning primer of breakfast links.

The Real Loser: Truth - Kevin Kruse, The New York Times
Obama, Finishes Where He Started - Sam Stein, The Huffington Post
Election Overtime: A Winless Wednesday – Elizabeth Titus, Politico
What to Watch for in Ohio - Rosalind Helderman, The Washington Post
Turnout, Turnout, Turnout - Michael Tomasky, The Daily Beast

The Obama Landslide Scenario - Steve Kornacki, salon.com

Ready for a Recount? -  Jeffrey Toobin, The New Yorker
Ron Paul Questions Value of Federal Aid - Pete Kasperowicz, The Hill
Romney's Quiet Rise - Peggy Noonan, Wall Street Journal
What Obama and Romney Should be Worrying About - Bill McKenzie, The Dallas Morning News

Demographic Voter Makeup: Virginia

*Editor’s note: This is the last installment in a series that will break down the demographic statistics of voters in all six of FPP’S designated swing states plus the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.

Virginia was one of the original 13 colonies and birthplace of four of the first five Presidents. Virginia is an important battleground state with 8,001,024 people which makes it the 12th largest state with 13 electoral votes. From the first election to 1808, the state had the most electoral votes. Barack Obama defeated John McCain there by a margin of 53% to 46% in 2008. Much like North Carolina, Virginia has seen drastic demographic changes making it far more likely to vote for a Democrat then in previous elections; it has voted Republican in every election since 1952 with the exception of 2008 and 1964. The state has two Democratic Senators, a Republican Governor, an equally divided State Senate, and a heavily Republican State House.

Population

Population: 8,001,024 (2010)
State rank: 12^th
Change since 2000 census: up 13.0%
Most populated cities
Virginia Beach 437,994
Norfolk 242,803
Chesapeake 222,209
Arlington CDP 207,627
Household Income
Under $15K: 10.4%
$15K-$50K: 31.2%
$50K-$100K: 31.6%
$100K-$200K: 20.8%
Over $200K: 6.1%
Median Income: $60,539

Read more after the jump

Alternate Voices

By: Katie Beemer, Guest Contributor Fourth Party Politics
 

We have heard overwhelming amounts of information from the major party candidates this season, but almost nothing about the third party candidates. While this is not unusual, it is important to also take into consideration their voice. What do they believe that makes them different? Here’s some basic info on each of these candidates:

Third Party Ramifications

 By: Nathan Wood, Political Contributor Fourth Party Politics

On November 6, 2012, we will know who will be the leader of the free world for the next four years. But, this is not the only thing that will happen as a result of the presidential election. This year, third party candidates not only have the power to steal voters from either side of the aisle, but they have a chance to have a stronger future influence in the American political system.

Mobilize

Tomorrow is the day; the race has been run; the fight has been fought; it comes down to you, information, and your vote.

You, yeah you the reader, are the voter – the one who makes the difference. This means you have to vote. So, go vote tomorrow! But, it also means if you have an issue you strongly support or a candidate you like today and tomorrow is your one and only chance in election season 2012 to show the electorate your passion. If you have time go volunteer, if you can’t I am sure there is a phonebank somewhere  that would love your help. If that’s doesn't float your boat. There is always social media; you can tweet, write on your timeline, or do whatever social media thing you do (like blog). It is all for one simple idea GOTV (GET OUT THE VOTE) which brings up another point make sure that everyone else votes as well; the government is designed to represent the people, so the people need to voice their opinions.

Information is also pivotal, and, as much as I want you to go vote, I don’t want the blind leading the blind. So, please look up the candidates; find out what they stand for. For the ballot proposals and mileages, learn the pros and cons of each. I know so many people that when they get to things like Circuit Court Judge or City Council they will just simply vote for the man or women with cooler name. Don’t do that, please, look them up so when you show up it you can fill in bubbles and leave. We are the only ones who can institute the change we want to see in the world. SO PLEASE GO VOTE!

Demographic Voter Makeup: Ohio

*Editor’s note: This is part eleven in a series that will break down the demographic statistics of voters in all six of FPP’S designated swing states plus the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Later Today Virginia

It is hard to find a credible path to the White House for Mitt Romney without Ohio. No Republican has ever won the White House without winning the Buckeye State. Since 1944, Ohioans have sided with the losing candidate only once when they voted for Nixon in 1960, making Ohio a true bellwether state. Ohio, like much of the industrial Midwest, has lost significant population resulting in a loss of about a third of its electoral votes since the 1960s. 2010 marks the fifth consecutive Census where Ohio has lost electoral votes. Mitt Romney will have to overcome the vastly improved economy and his opposition to the auto bailout in order to win Ohio’s 18 electoral votes. One out of every eight jobs in Ohio is directly tied to the auto industry. Democrats in Ohio remain motivated due to a victory last year that struck down a bill restricting workers’ rights to collectively bargain. In 2008 Barack Obama defeated John McCain by 5 points, 52% to 47%. In all likelihood whoever wins Ohio wins the presidency.

Population: 11,536,504 (2010)

State rank: 7th
Change since 2000 census: Up 1.6%
Most populated cities
Columbus 787,033
Cleveland 396,815
Cincinnati 296,943
Toledo 287,208
Household Income
Under $15K: 14.5%
$15K-$50K: 38.5%
$50K-$100K: 31.3%
$100K-$200K: 13.3%
Over $200K: 2.5%
Median Income: $46,838
Home Value

Under $100K: 30.2%

$100K-$300K: 60.3%
Over $300K: 9.5%
Median Value: $136,900

Read more after the Jump

Demographic Voter Makeup: Nevada

*Editor’s note: This is part ten in a series that will break down the demographic statistics of voters in all six of FPP’S designated swing states plus the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Tomorrow Ohio and Virginia

Nevada has seen the largest percentage in population growth over the past decade with its population tripling since 1980. This population growth gives Nevada one more electoral vote than it had in 2008 (now up to 6) when it voted overwhelming for Barack Obama by a margin of 55% to 43%. However, the economic outlook has declined considerably since President Obama won the Silver State four years ago. Nevada has the nation’s highest rates of home foreclosure and unemployment. The advantage for the president is a large Hispanic voter base and a huge push for early voting. Nevada is the only state to ever cast just two electoral votes. In the 1864 election, just after gaining statehood, the third elector was snowbound and because the new state government had yet to be called into session, there was no way to select a replacement elector.

Population

Population: 2,700,551 (2010)

State rank: 35^th
Change since 2000 census: up 35.1%
Most populated cities
Las Vegas 583,756
Henderson 257,729
Reno 225,221
Paradise CDP 223,167
Household Income
Under $15K: 9.4%
$15K-$50K: 35.1%
$50K-$100K: 34.9%
$100K-$200K: 17.2%
Over $200K: 3.3%
Median Income: $55,322

Read more after the jump

Bridges: Acts of Political Absurdity

By: Jason Colella, Co-Owner and Sr. Political Editor Fourth Party Politics

Picture Courtesy of Forbes

I would bet when I said the word "bridge" you thought this would be another boring article about Alaska and its infamous bridge to nowhere. If you did, I forgive you. That’s not where this going. However, welcome to the Wolverine State, the great state of Michigan, and what has to be some of the bloodiest and most expensive ballot proposals in the entire country - Proposition 5 and 6 (six is where most of the money is being spent).

The only spot in the US where America is north of Canada is in downtown Detroit. There is a bridge and tunnel connecting the cities of Detroit and Windsor there. The bridge is the Ambassador Bridge completed in 1929, and it also holds the distinction of being the only privately owned border crossing between the US and Canada. The State of Michigan and the government of Canada would like to build a new bridge to cross the Detroit River because it then could connect to a Canadian highway 401 and reduce traffic issues in Detroit and mainly in Windsor while also helping to increase trade between the two countries growing both economies.

Read more after the jump

Momentum versus the Map

By: William Snyder, Managing editor Fourth Party Politics

On Tuesday the country comes to a crossroads, and one of two dramatically different paths will be taken. The race for 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue features two distinctly different views of how government should play a role in the lives of citizens. One party wants to make government so small the only thing it can regulate is a women’s vagina. The other wants to continue to rebuild the economy after the financial crisis and raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans to pay for the programs that most benefit middle class Americans. With a falling unemployment rate and job creation for over 30 consecutive months, the daunting task of removing a sitting president becomes even more difficult for Governor Romney. Only once since 1900 has a political party been taken out of power after holding just one term in the White House, Jimmy Carter and the Democrats in 1980. Will Mitt Romney’s say or do anything approach to be elected President gain the trust of swing voters in Toledo and Orlando or will voters come to realize Mr. Romney’s history of being a chronic political flip-flopper and cause a trust issue with moderates in the end?  

It has become clear that following the first debate in Denver last month Mitt Romney had the momentum while President Obama had the map and his campaign was trying to run out the clock up by three late in the fourth quarter. Enter Hurricane Sandy as a true October surprise. The President was pushed into the national spotlight to deal with an historic crisis which for a period of two days completely froze the race and the momentum. Up until last week, when the race was frozen in place, this race was starting to shape up a lot like that of the 1980 election when Reagan made a huge surge in the closing weeks of the campaign to overtake Jimmy Carter. Following the aftermath of Sandy, polling has been somewhat limited but suggests a race closer to that of 2004 with an incumbent narrowly edging out the victory. Based on all of the public polling in the last week the challenge still lies with the Romney campaign to demonstrate they can get to 270 electoral votes. It is still clear that the map and the math favor the President because he has more paths to 270 and they are much clearer paths. In all likelihood the race comes down to two states; Virginia, and Ohio. If Governor Romney wants any chance what so ever he must win Virginia and recent polls have shown the President with a slim margin of error lead. The simplest path for Romney is to hold the south and win Ohio then all he has to do is take New Hampshire where the trusted local poll conducted by WMUR has the race tied. However it appears that Ohio is becoming more of a stretch for the Romney campaign. Ohio is still the simplest way and maybe the most competitive but I think the reason they are looking at other options like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota is because they know they can’t count on Ohio. One of the things you don’t hear the pundits talking about is how drastically Mitt Romney is going to over preform John McCain across the board in both solid blue and solid red states which is why national tracking polls show such a tight race. The last few days polls have been released showing Romney gaining ground in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota, but the question is can he really win there? Personally I think those states will be tight races possibly within 3 or 4 points but it’s Lucy and the football close and not realistic for a Romney win in those states.

Predictions

President:
Obama 49.2% 277 electoral votes
Romney 48.9% 261 electoral votes
Johnson 1.3%
Stein 0.3%
Goode 0.2%
Anderson 0.1%

State with closest winning margin:
Virginia. I have been back and forth between Virginia and Colorado on this one for the last couple of weeks. Recent polling suggests former congressman and constitution party presidential nominee Virgil Goode could have an impact in his home state and take votes away from Romney. A recent Washington Post/ABC poll had Goode polling in 2% of the vote

Senate:
Current: D51 R47 I2 (both caucus with Democrats)
Prediction: D51 R47 I2 (both expected to caucus with Democrats)
Democrats: Pick-ups: MA, ME, IN Holds: CA, CT, DE, FL, HI, MD, MI, MN, MO, MT, NJ, NM, NY, OH, PA, RI, VA, VT, WA, WV
Republicans Pick-ups: ND, WI Holds: AZ, MS, NE, NV, TN, TX, UT, WY,

House:

Current: D191 R241
Prediction: Democrats net 4-10 seats and Republicans keep overwhelming control of the house.

One would think Democrats would have the upper hand in more house elections after 2010, but state Republican parties had control of redistricting in many states which will make it a much tougher task for Democrats to take back the house in the coming years. The untold tale of this election is that Republicans and tea partyers are likely to strengthen their already strong hold on state legislature.

Yours in Democracy, -William  Snyder

Demographic Voter Makeup: Colorado

*Editor’s note: This is part nine in a series that will break down the demographic statistics of voters in all six of FPP’S designated swing states plus the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Later Today Nevada

Colorado has only voted Democratic in two of the last ten presidential elections and only three times since WWII. In 2008 and in the 2010 midterms Independents and women voted overwhelmingly in favor of Democrats, which lead to surprise Democratic wins in the governor’s and senate races. With a growing Hispanic population, Colorado is now considered in play for Democrats when it never would have been in the past. The state’s population has been growing, and now has nine electoral votes up from six in the 1960s. The Centennial State voted for Barack Obama by 54%-45% margin over John McCain

Population

Population: 5,029,196 (2010)
State rank: 22^nd
Change since 2000 census: up 16.9%
Most populated cities
Denver 600,158
Colorado Springs 416,427
Aurora 325,078
Fort Collins 143,986
Household Income
Under $15K: 11.2%
$15K-$50K: 33.3%
$50K-$100K: 32.3%
$100K-$200K: 18.8%
Over $200K: 4.4%
Median Income: $56,334

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Demographic Voter Makeup: Pennsylvania

*Editor’s note: This is part eight in a series that will break down the demographic statistics of voters in all six of FPP’S designated swing states plus the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Tomorrow Colorado and Nevada

Pennsylvania was the second state admitted to the Union, officially becoming a state in December 1787. The Keystone State has participated in all 56 presidential elections. Pennsylvania is generally considered a swing state, but it has voted Democratic in the last five elections. In 2008, Barack Obama beat John McCain by about 11%. While still an important prize with 20 electoral votes, Pennsylvania, like many industrial northern states, has seen mass population decline in recent decades. Peaking at 38 electoral votes in the early 1900’s, the state has lost about 45 percent of its electoral votes in 80 years.

Population

Population: 12,702,379 (2010)
State rank: 6^th
Change since 2000 census: up 3.4%
Most populated cities
Philadelphia 1,526,006
Pittsburgh 305,704
Allentown 118,032
Erie 101,786
Household Income
Under $15K: 13.2%
$15K-$50K: 36.8%
$50K-$100K: 31.5%
$100K-$200K: 15.0%
Over $200K: 3.5%
Median Income: $50,028

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Demographic Voter Makeup: North Carolina

*Editor’s note: This is part seven in a series that will break down the demographic statistics of voters in all six of FPP’S designated swing states plus the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Later Today Pennsylvania

North Carolina is usually a dark a red state that has only voted blue twice since 1964 in 1976 and 2008; the fact the state voted for Obama in 2008 is an ever so small glimmer of hope for a 2012 win for Democrats. The Tar Heel State was the 2nd closest race of the 2008 election (behind Missouri); Barack Obama defeated John McCain by a mere 14,000 votes. The state has definitely changed demographically and will make it more likely for a Democratic win, but it will be a longshot. The state is nearing 10 million in population making it an electoral powerhouse with 15 electoral votes. Like we learned about New Hampshire in an earlier preview the state legislature leans strongly conservative, while statewide residents support a liberal governor; however, the democrats will most likely lose control of the governorship this year.

Population

Population: 9,535,483 (2010)
State rank: 10^th
Change since 2000 census: up 18.5%
Most populated cities
Charlotte 731,424
Raleigh 403,892
Greensboro 269,666
Winston-Salem 229,617
Household Income
Under $15K: 15.1%
$15K-$50K: 39.4%
$50K-$100K: 29.8%
$100K-$200K: 12.8%
Over $200K: 2.9%
Median Income: $45,131

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Demographic Voter Makeup: Michigan

*Editor’s note: This is part six in a series that will break down the demographic statistics of voters in all six of FPP’S designated swing states plus the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Tomorrow North Carolina and Pennsylvania

Michigan served as the boyhood home of Mitt Romney where his father was a popular three term governor in the 1960s. The Great Lakes State joined the Union in January 1837 and voted primarily Republican until the Great Depression. Before becoming the Democratic-leaning state it is today the state voted Republican from 1972 through 1988. In 2008, Barack Obama defeated John McCain by a 57% to 41% margin. Michigan was the only state to lose population in the 2010 Census. It will lose one electoral vote, giving it 16 for the next three presidential elections. This is the fourth consecutive Census where Michigan has lost electoral votes. The government bailout of the auto industry which Mitt Romney strongly opposed should make it rather difficult for the one time native son to be singing Hail to the Victors on Election Night.

Population

Population: 9,883,640 (2010)
State rank: 8th
Change since 2000 census: Down 0.6%
Most populated cities
Detroit 713,777
Grand Rapids 188,040
Warren 134,056
Sterling Heights 129,699
Household Income
Under $15K: 14.1%
$15K-$50K: 38.2%
$50K-$100K: 30.8%
$100K-$200K: 14.2%
Over $200K: 2.7%
Median Income: $47,461

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