Live Blog: Election Night Coverage

Obama: 303
Romney: 206
270 To Win

BREAKING NEWS - Obama wins the election after claiming victory in Ohio.

Tonight the country comes to a crossroads, and one of two dramatically different paths will be taken. The race for 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue features two distinctly different views of how government should play a role in the lives of citizens. One party wants to make government so small it will drown in the bathtub. The other wants to continue to rebuild the economy after the financial crisis and raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans to pay for the programs that most benefit middle class Americans. With a falling unemployment rate and job creation for over 30 consecutive months, the daunting task of removing a sitting president becomes even more difficult for Gov. Romney. Only once since 1900 has a political party been taken out of power after holding just one term in the White House, Jimmy Carter and the Democrats in 1980.

1:01 - We can now give the President the other electoral vote from Maine's 2nd congressional district and award him Virginia’s 13 electoral votes. Also Mitt Romney will carry Alaska and its 3 electoral votes. Tammy Baldwin has also been declared the winner in the Wisconsin senate race; she will be the first openly gay senator.

12:11 - Obama picks up Colorado and its 9 EV

11:56 -- Democratic Senators Cantwell (WA) and Feinstein (CA) are reelected.

11:53 -- Henrich (D) of New Mexico is elected to US Senate while Flake (R) is victorious in Arizona.

11:48 - Obama picks up Nevada and its 6 EV

11:16 - BREAKING NEWS - Obama wins Ohio and is re-elected president

11:15 - Romney wins North Carolina, Obama takes Iowa

11:02 - The time is now 11 o’clock in the east and new polls have just closed on the west coast. We can project Romney will carry the state of Idaho and its 4 electoral votes. Also we can project that President Obama will carry the states of California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington totaling 78 electoral votes.
Remaining states yet to be called:
Ohio
Florida
Colorado
Michigan
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Iowa
Nevada
Alaska

11:00 --Tim Kaine wins the Senate race in Virginia replacing fellow democratic Webb.

10:47 - We can now project that President Obama will carry the state of Minnesota which has 10 electoral votes.

10:40 - Mitt Romney wins Arizona and its 11 electoral votes.

10:21 -- Republicans pick up NE. Senate State reducing Dems gains to two on the night.

10:12 -- BREAKING NEWS: Romney wins Missouri.

10:11 -- Senator Claire McCaskill is reelected over Todd Akin in Missouri Senate Race.

10:04 - The time is now 10 o’clock in the east and new polls have just closed totaling 23 electoral votes. We can project Romney will carry the states of Montana and Utah totaling 9 electoral votes. Also standby polls are closed in Nevada and Iowa and we characterize those races as too early to call.

9:51 --BREAKING NEWS: Elizabeth Warren wins Ma. Senate bringing Dem up to plus three for the night.

9:50 -- BREAKING NEWS: Obama wins New Hampshire.

9:48 --BREAKING NEWS: Joe Donnelly wins Indiana Senate bringing Dem up to plus two for the night.

9:44 -- Klobuchar (D) of Mn., Brasso (R) of WY., Cruz (R) of TX., Brown (D) of Ohio, and Whicker (R) of MS. all can be called for winning their senate races. So far the Democrats have picked up one senate seat. We can call Democratic victory in NH Gubernatorial and Republican victory in North Dakota Gubernatorial

9:31 - BREAKING NEWS: Obama wins Wisconsin

9:25 – BREAKING NEWS: We can comfortably call the State of Pennsylvania for Obama and FPP can report Democrats will retain the Senate.

9:16 -- Michigan can be called for Obama while North Dakota can be called for Romney. More Senate races can be called Manchin (D) of West Virginia, Nelson (D) of Florida, Stabenow of Michigan, Gillbrand (D) of New York, Whitehouse (D) of Rhode Island, Mendez of New Jersey, Casey in Pennsylvania and Murphy (D) of Connecticut.

9:02 - The time is now 9 o’clock in the east and a slew polls have just closed totaling 153 electoral votes. We can project Romney will carry the states of Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska (4 of 5) South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming totaling 62 electoral votes. Also we can project that President Obama will carry the states of Maine (3 of 4) New York and New Mexico totaling 37 electoral votes.

8:48 – We can call the Maine Senate Race to Angus King, an independent who will caucus with the democrats; he was expected to win and won fairly easily. Senator Cardin (D) of Maryland has been projected victorious along with Senator Carper (D) of Delaware.

8:31 - Polls just closed moment’s ago in Arkansas were we can project it six electoral votes will go for Mitt Romney.

8:15 – Florida is moving toward Obama . NC is currently in Obama corner with 9% reporting while Virginia currently shows a Romney lead. Obama also has a sizable lead in Ohio with 1% percent reporting also he is winning the white working vote there. Bob Corker is projected winner of TN. Senate.

8:13 - Projection: Romney wins Georgia 16EV

8:05 - The time is now 8 o’clock in the east and a slew polls have just closed totaling 172 electoral votes. We can project Romney will carry the states of Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Tennessee totaling 33 electoral votes. Also we can project that president Obama will carry the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Washington, DC totaling 72 electoral votes.

Demographic Voter Makeup: Virginia

*Editor’s note: This is the last installment in a series that will break down the demographic statistics of voters in all six of FPP’S designated swing states plus the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.

Virginia was one of the original 13 colonies and birthplace of four of the first five Presidents. Virginia is an important battleground state with 8,001,024 people which makes it the 12th largest state with 13 electoral votes. From the first election to 1808, the state had the most electoral votes. Barack Obama defeated John McCain there by a margin of 53% to 46% in 2008. Much like North Carolina, Virginia has seen drastic demographic changes making it far more likely to vote for a Democrat then in previous elections; it has voted Republican in every election since 1952 with the exception of 2008 and 1964. The state has two Democratic Senators, a Republican Governor, an equally divided State Senate, and a heavily Republican State House.

Population

Population: 8,001,024 (2010)
State rank: 12^th
Change since 2000 census: up 13.0%
Most populated cities
Virginia Beach 437,994
Norfolk 242,803
Chesapeake 222,209
Arlington CDP 207,627
Household Income
Under $15K: 10.4%
$15K-$50K: 31.2%
$50K-$100K: 31.6%
$100K-$200K: 20.8%
Over $200K: 6.1%
Median Income: $60,539

Read more after the jump

Demographic Voter Makeup: Ohio

*Editor’s note: This is part eleven in a series that will break down the demographic statistics of voters in all six of FPP’S designated swing states plus the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Later Today Virginia

It is hard to find a credible path to the White House for Mitt Romney without Ohio. No Republican has ever won the White House without winning the Buckeye State. Since 1944, Ohioans have sided with the losing candidate only once when they voted for Nixon in 1960, making Ohio a true bellwether state. Ohio, like much of the industrial Midwest, has lost significant population resulting in a loss of about a third of its electoral votes since the 1960s. 2010 marks the fifth consecutive Census where Ohio has lost electoral votes. Mitt Romney will have to overcome the vastly improved economy and his opposition to the auto bailout in order to win Ohio’s 18 electoral votes. One out of every eight jobs in Ohio is directly tied to the auto industry. Democrats in Ohio remain motivated due to a victory last year that struck down a bill restricting workers’ rights to collectively bargain. In 2008 Barack Obama defeated John McCain by 5 points, 52% to 47%. In all likelihood whoever wins Ohio wins the presidency.

Population: 11,536,504 (2010)

State rank: 7th
Change since 2000 census: Up 1.6%
Most populated cities
Columbus 787,033
Cleveland 396,815
Cincinnati 296,943
Toledo 287,208
Household Income
Under $15K: 14.5%
$15K-$50K: 38.5%
$50K-$100K: 31.3%
$100K-$200K: 13.3%
Over $200K: 2.5%
Median Income: $46,838
Home Value

Under $100K: 30.2%

$100K-$300K: 60.3%
Over $300K: 9.5%
Median Value: $136,900

Read more after the Jump

Demographic Voter Makeup: Nevada

*Editor’s note: This is part ten in a series that will break down the demographic statistics of voters in all six of FPP’S designated swing states plus the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Tomorrow Ohio and Virginia

Nevada has seen the largest percentage in population growth over the past decade with its population tripling since 1980. This population growth gives Nevada one more electoral vote than it had in 2008 (now up to 6) when it voted overwhelming for Barack Obama by a margin of 55% to 43%. However, the economic outlook has declined considerably since President Obama won the Silver State four years ago. Nevada has the nation’s highest rates of home foreclosure and unemployment. The advantage for the president is a large Hispanic voter base and a huge push for early voting. Nevada is the only state to ever cast just two electoral votes. In the 1864 election, just after gaining statehood, the third elector was snowbound and because the new state government had yet to be called into session, there was no way to select a replacement elector.

Population

Population: 2,700,551 (2010)

State rank: 35^th
Change since 2000 census: up 35.1%
Most populated cities
Las Vegas 583,756
Henderson 257,729
Reno 225,221
Paradise CDP 223,167
Household Income
Under $15K: 9.4%
$15K-$50K: 35.1%
$50K-$100K: 34.9%
$100K-$200K: 17.2%
Over $200K: 3.3%
Median Income: $55,322

Read more after the jump

Momentum versus the Map

By: William Snyder, Managing editor Fourth Party Politics

On Tuesday the country comes to a crossroads, and one of two dramatically different paths will be taken. The race for 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue features two distinctly different views of how government should play a role in the lives of citizens. One party wants to make government so small the only thing it can regulate is a women’s vagina. The other wants to continue to rebuild the economy after the financial crisis and raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans to pay for the programs that most benefit middle class Americans. With a falling unemployment rate and job creation for over 30 consecutive months, the daunting task of removing a sitting president becomes even more difficult for Governor Romney. Only once since 1900 has a political party been taken out of power after holding just one term in the White House, Jimmy Carter and the Democrats in 1980. Will Mitt Romney’s say or do anything approach to be elected President gain the trust of swing voters in Toledo and Orlando or will voters come to realize Mr. Romney’s history of being a chronic political flip-flopper and cause a trust issue with moderates in the end?  

It has become clear that following the first debate in Denver last month Mitt Romney had the momentum while President Obama had the map and his campaign was trying to run out the clock up by three late in the fourth quarter. Enter Hurricane Sandy as a true October surprise. The President was pushed into the national spotlight to deal with an historic crisis which for a period of two days completely froze the race and the momentum. Up until last week, when the race was frozen in place, this race was starting to shape up a lot like that of the 1980 election when Reagan made a huge surge in the closing weeks of the campaign to overtake Jimmy Carter. Following the aftermath of Sandy, polling has been somewhat limited but suggests a race closer to that of 2004 with an incumbent narrowly edging out the victory. Based on all of the public polling in the last week the challenge still lies with the Romney campaign to demonstrate they can get to 270 electoral votes. It is still clear that the map and the math favor the President because he has more paths to 270 and they are much clearer paths. In all likelihood the race comes down to two states; Virginia, and Ohio. If Governor Romney wants any chance what so ever he must win Virginia and recent polls have shown the President with a slim margin of error lead. The simplest path for Romney is to hold the south and win Ohio then all he has to do is take New Hampshire where the trusted local poll conducted by WMUR has the race tied. However it appears that Ohio is becoming more of a stretch for the Romney campaign. Ohio is still the simplest way and maybe the most competitive but I think the reason they are looking at other options like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota is because they know they can’t count on Ohio. One of the things you don’t hear the pundits talking about is how drastically Mitt Romney is going to over preform John McCain across the board in both solid blue and solid red states which is why national tracking polls show such a tight race. The last few days polls have been released showing Romney gaining ground in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota, but the question is can he really win there? Personally I think those states will be tight races possibly within 3 or 4 points but it’s Lucy and the football close and not realistic for a Romney win in those states.

Predictions

President:
Obama 49.2% 277 electoral votes
Romney 48.9% 261 electoral votes
Johnson 1.3%
Stein 0.3%
Goode 0.2%
Anderson 0.1%

State with closest winning margin:
Virginia. I have been back and forth between Virginia and Colorado on this one for the last couple of weeks. Recent polling suggests former congressman and constitution party presidential nominee Virgil Goode could have an impact in his home state and take votes away from Romney. A recent Washington Post/ABC poll had Goode polling in 2% of the vote

Senate:
Current: D51 R47 I2 (both caucus with Democrats)
Prediction: D51 R47 I2 (both expected to caucus with Democrats)
Democrats: Pick-ups: MA, ME, IN Holds: CA, CT, DE, FL, HI, MD, MI, MN, MO, MT, NJ, NM, NY, OH, PA, RI, VA, VT, WA, WV
Republicans Pick-ups: ND, WI Holds: AZ, MS, NE, NV, TN, TX, UT, WY,

House:

Current: D191 R241
Prediction: Democrats net 4-10 seats and Republicans keep overwhelming control of the house.

One would think Democrats would have the upper hand in more house elections after 2010, but state Republican parties had control of redistricting in many states which will make it a much tougher task for Democrats to take back the house in the coming years. The untold tale of this election is that Republicans and tea partyers are likely to strengthen their already strong hold on state legislature.

Yours in Democracy, -William  Snyder

Demographic Voter Makeup: Colorado

*Editor’s note: This is part nine in a series that will break down the demographic statistics of voters in all six of FPP’S designated swing states plus the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Later Today Nevada

Colorado has only voted Democratic in two of the last ten presidential elections and only three times since WWII. In 2008 and in the 2010 midterms Independents and women voted overwhelmingly in favor of Democrats, which lead to surprise Democratic wins in the governor’s and senate races. With a growing Hispanic population, Colorado is now considered in play for Democrats when it never would have been in the past. The state’s population has been growing, and now has nine electoral votes up from six in the 1960s. The Centennial State voted for Barack Obama by 54%-45% margin over John McCain

Population

Population: 5,029,196 (2010)
State rank: 22^nd
Change since 2000 census: up 16.9%
Most populated cities
Denver 600,158
Colorado Springs 416,427
Aurora 325,078
Fort Collins 143,986
Household Income
Under $15K: 11.2%
$15K-$50K: 33.3%
$50K-$100K: 32.3%
$100K-$200K: 18.8%
Over $200K: 4.4%
Median Income: $56,334

Read more after the jump

Demographic Voter Makeup: North Carolina

*Editor’s note: This is part seven in a series that will break down the demographic statistics of voters in all six of FPP’S designated swing states plus the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Later Today Pennsylvania

North Carolina is usually a dark a red state that has only voted blue twice since 1964 in 1976 and 2008; the fact the state voted for Obama in 2008 is an ever so small glimmer of hope for a 2012 win for Democrats. The Tar Heel State was the 2nd closest race of the 2008 election (behind Missouri); Barack Obama defeated John McCain by a mere 14,000 votes. The state has definitely changed demographically and will make it more likely for a Democratic win, but it will be a longshot. The state is nearing 10 million in population making it an electoral powerhouse with 15 electoral votes. Like we learned about New Hampshire in an earlier preview the state legislature leans strongly conservative, while statewide residents support a liberal governor; however, the democrats will most likely lose control of the governorship this year.

Population

Population: 9,535,483 (2010)
State rank: 10^th
Change since 2000 census: up 18.5%
Most populated cities
Charlotte 731,424
Raleigh 403,892
Greensboro 269,666
Winston-Salem 229,617
Household Income
Under $15K: 15.1%
$15K-$50K: 39.4%
$50K-$100K: 29.8%
$100K-$200K: 12.8%
Over $200K: 2.9%
Median Income: $45,131

Read more after the jump

Demographic Voter Makeup: Michigan

*Editor’s note: This is part six in a series that will break down the demographic statistics of voters in all six of FPP’S designated swing states plus the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Tomorrow North Carolina and Pennsylvania

Michigan served as the boyhood home of Mitt Romney where his father was a popular three term governor in the 1960s. The Great Lakes State joined the Union in January 1837 and voted primarily Republican until the Great Depression. Before becoming the Democratic-leaning state it is today the state voted Republican from 1972 through 1988. In 2008, Barack Obama defeated John McCain by a 57% to 41% margin. Michigan was the only state to lose population in the 2010 Census. It will lose one electoral vote, giving it 16 for the next three presidential elections. This is the fourth consecutive Census where Michigan has lost electoral votes. The government bailout of the auto industry which Mitt Romney strongly opposed should make it rather difficult for the one time native son to be singing Hail to the Victors on Election Night.

Population

Population: 9,883,640 (2010)
State rank: 8th
Change since 2000 census: Down 0.6%
Most populated cities
Detroit 713,777
Grand Rapids 188,040
Warren 134,056
Sterling Heights 129,699
Household Income
Under $15K: 14.1%
$15K-$50K: 38.2%
$50K-$100K: 30.8%
$100K-$200K: 14.2%
Over $200K: 2.7%
Median Income: $47,461

Read more after the jump

Demographic Voter Makeup: Wisconsin

*Editor’s note: This is part five in a series that will break down the demographic statistics of voters in all six of FPP’S designated swing states plus the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Later Today Michigan

 

Wisconsin gained statehood in May 1848 and has voted democratic in each election since 1988, although the 2000 and 2004 races were extremely close. In the 2008 election Barack Obama won easily by a 56% to 42% margin over John McCain. The addition of Wisconsin congressman Paul Ryan to the ballot as a Vice Presidential candidate doesn’t necessarily swing Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes into Mitt Romney’s column, but it does bring Wisconsin back into play this cycle. Ultimately Romney’s name sits atop the ticket not that of the native son so Romney will have to make his own case in the end. The recent recall attempt of Gov. Scott Walker means that both parties have an energized ground game and Election Day might ultimately come down to which camp can turnout its voters.

Population

Population: 5,686,986 (2010)
State rank: 20^th
Change since 2000 census: up 6.0%
Most populated cities
Milwaukee 594,833
Madison 233, 209
Green Bay 104,057
Kenosha 99,218
Household Income
Under $15K: 11.5%
$15K-$50K: 37.2%
$50K-$100K: 34.5%
$100K-$200K: 14.3%
Over $200K: 2.6%
Median Income: $51,257

Read more after the jump

Political Tea Time (No Tea Party Involved)

Here’s your Thursday evening roundup of tea time links.

The politics of Friday’s jobs report – Neil Irwin, Washington Post
Romney forces see Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota ripe for turning red – Dan Balz, Jerry Markon and Paul Kane, Washington Post
Senate 5: Todd Akin says he’s in the game – David Catanese, Scott Wong and Kate Nocera, Politico
Cory Booker to Newark residents: Come on over – Katie Glueck, Politico
Bloomberg Endorses Obama, Citing Climate Change – Raymond Hernandez, New York Times
How Does Bernie Sanders Do It? – John Nichols, The Nation

Demographic Voter Makeup: Florida

*Editor’s note: This is part one in a series that will break down the demographic statistics of voters in all six of FPP’S designated swing states plus the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Later today Minnesota

After the circus that was the 2000 election, Florida will forever be known as the most famous battleground state in presidential politics. This year the outcome will depend on how heavily Hispanic voters turnout in favor of the President. The question becomes will Mitt Romney be able to chip into the Hispanic voter base and overcome Paul Ryan’s proposals to end Medicare as we know it in a state full of seniors, or will president Obama retain a state that is trending heavily towards conservatives? Romney’s strength will be in the northern most parts of Florida and in the panhandle while President Obama will do well in the south and around the Miami area. Aside from the breakdown of Hispanic voters whoever wins the I-4 corridor most likely wins the sunshine state and its 29 electoral votes.

Population

Population: 18,801,310
State rank: 4th
Change since 2000 census: up 17.6%
Most populated cities
Jacksonville 821,784
Miami 399,457
Tampa 335,709
St. Petersburg 244,769
Household Income
Under $15K: 13.1%
$15K-$50K: 39.7%
$50K-$100K: 30.2%
$100K-$200K: 13.5%
Over $200K: 3.5%
Median Income: $47,051

Read more after the jump