Showing posts with label Senate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Senate. Show all posts

Thursday, January 3, 2013

Talking Points: Why the Fiscal Cliff Deal is A Big Step in the Right Direction

By: William Snyder, Managing Editor Fourth Party Politics
 
Earlier in the week one of my colleagues wrote an article about the fiscal cliff deal and how Congress always “fixes the tire” by means of plugging the hole instead of replacing the tire. He wrote that the fiscal cliff deal was one of Congresses many “crazy short term fixes that do absolutely nothing to solve the countries long term issues.” I must say I have to disagree.

In the real world you can’t always get what you want. Late last week it appeared that the country was well on its way to going over the fiscal cliff. With the Speaker’s failed Plan B strategy all talks between the two sides had stopped. Then enter Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Sunday night McConnell swallowed his pride and put in a phone call to one of his old senate colleagues, Vice President Joe Biden. Biden and Senate leaders reached a bipartisan compromise on the fiscal cliff that would allow tax rates to rise on income over $400,000 and delay steep automatic federal spending cuts for two months.
 
Once McConnell and Boehner reach out over the aisle the President and Congressional Democrats had no choice but to accept the deal. President Obama had an entirely new agenda that he could not risk compromising before the 113th Congress was even gaveled into session. When one party puts their entire neck out on the line like Speaker Boehner did by breaking ranks with the majority of his caucus, the other party must step up to the plate and accept. Progressives could not afford to walk away from the deal if they wanted to accomplished any of their major agenda items in the next term, like gun control and campaign finance.
 
Progressives got a good deal as it was:
  • Taxes Raised on Incomes Over $450,000 (Signal Household $400,000)
  • Capital Gains Tax Raised to 20%
  • Estate Tax Raised to 40%
  • Extended Unemployment Insurance Benefits
  • Childcare Tax Credits 
  • College Tax Credits 
  • Limited Deductions
  • Extends the Farm Bill
  • ZERO cuts to Social Security/Medicare

The 112th Congress went down in history as being the most unproductive Congress in existence. They passed the fewest amount of legislation in over 100 years and had the lowest approval ratings since we've been keeping track of that kind of thing. So maybe we can look at this landmark compromise that ended the legislative session as a step in the right direction. Maybe we can give credit where credit is due to Republican Speaker John Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell for brokering an unpopular deal with their own members. They broke ranks with many in their respective caucuses to do something for the greater good of their constituents. To end what will go down as the worst Congress on record with a bipartisan deal gives me hope for what the 113th Congress has in store.

Too many politically astute people forget that compromise is not a dirty word. You are never going to get all of what you want simply because that is not compromise; that is greed. My suggestion to my Democratic friends: if you don’t like messy compromise and dived government, elect more progressives to Congress in 2014.

Despite what you’ll hear from many progressives, this is a desirable compromise. By no means is it perfect, but what compromise is perfect?

Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Freshman Introductions: Tammy Baldwin and Joe Donnelly


Joe Donnelly
Joe Donnelly has been elected to replace popular longtime Republican Senator Dick Lugar (R-IN). Lugar had lost in an unexpected primary upset to a Tea Party backed uber-conservative -- Indiana State Treasurer Richard Murdock. Murdock sealed his and Donnelly fate with a comment about abortion but it may have cost Murdock the race. Joe Donnelly, however, is no champion of pro-choice ideals; he, himself, is a strong prolife Congressman getting high marks from Right to Life and other prolife organizations. Donnelly graduated from Norte Dame Law School and became a lawyer in Indiana, a profession he held until he started a small printing and stamping business in the mid-1990s. In 2006, he announced his candidacy for congress for a second time; he had lost in 2004 to the same incumbent he would upset two years later. Since his swearing in, Donnelly has been a member of the conservative faction of House Democrats – the Blue Dog Caucasus. This conservatism has given him one of the most independent records in congress. He voted both to end DADT and to keep it on separate occasions. In the senate, Donnelly will serve on the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry, the Senate Committee on Armed Services, and the Senate Special Committee on Aging.


Tammy BaldwinTammy Baldwin not only becomes Wisconsin first women Senator, but she is also the first openly LGBT person to be elected to the Upper House. Baldwin was first elected to political office in 1986 as a member of the Dane County Board of Supervisors. In 1992, she ran for a seat in the 78th District of the Wisconsin State Assembly. She won with 59% of the vote; her nearest opponent received just 23%. Baldwin would go on to be re-elected in both ’94 and ’96. In 1998 Scott Klug announced he would retire at the end of his term, which prompted Baldwin to run for his 2nd congressional district seat. She would go on to win and be reelected relatively easily 6 times. Baldwin’s 2012 Senate victory came as a bit of a surprise to many as she is much more progressive than your average cheese head. Baldwin’s opponent was moderate former four term Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson. While in the House, Baldwin was consistently rated as one of the most progressive voices in D.C. She was one of the loudest opponents of the Bush administration and in 2007 introduced legislation to impeach former Vice President Dick Cheney and Attorneys General Alberto Gonzales. Because she served for fourteen years in the House of Representatives, she will have the most seniority in the freshman class of senators due to Senate rules.





Thursday, December 27, 2012

Freshman Introductions: Deb Fischer and Angus King

Angus King




Angus King is the first ever Independent elected to serve in the Senate from Maine. He follows in the footsteps of Republican Senator Olympia Snowe, who announced she would not run for re-election earlier this year, citing frustration due to partisanship. King previously served as the two term Independent Governor of the state between 1995 and 2003. King will caucus with the Democrats once sworn in; meaning there will be 55 Senators in the caucus a pickup of two seats from the 112th congress. Before serving as Governor, King was the host of a statewide political talk show on public television and served as an assistant on the staff of Maine Democratic Senator William Hathaway in the mid 70’s. During the 80’s King worked for several companies that were developers of alternative and renewable energy including founding his own company which worked to conserve electricity at commercial and industrial businesses throughout New England. A major focus of King’s Campaign was his promise to fight for government reforms including campaign finance, filibuster reform, and the No Budget, No Pay Act.

Deb Fischer 



With the retirement of Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Democrats basically lost all hope at being able to retain his seat. In a last ditch effort Democrats persuaded former Nebraska Senator Bob Kerrey to come home to his native state and run for his former seat. It was a short-term fix as Kerrey was pegged as out of touch with his former constituents because he had since moved away from his native Nebraska. The Republican nominee, Deb Fischer, easily won the election. Fischer was born, raised, and educated in Nebraska and has worked since College on her husband’s Cattle Ranch. She was first elected to political office in 2004 when she was elected to the Nebraska State Legislature. She was vastly outspent (10 to 1) in her primary but managed to pull off a major upset in part due to a last minute endorsement from Sarah Palin. She is in favor of disbanding the EPA, repealing Obamacare, and helped lead the opposition in the State Legislature against imposing a statewide smoking ban. She is strongly prolife and anti-gay marriage. The election of Fischer marks the end of an era of a moderate voice in Nebraska politics; she will bring what is a growing feature of Republican Party -- hardline tea party ideology.



Monday, December 24, 2012

Freshman Introductions: Jeff Flake and Ted Cruz





Picture Courtesy of WikipediaJeff Flake

Jon Kyl’s replacement has been found for the Arizona Senate Seat -- Congressman Jeff Flake. Congressman Flake, a Mormon, represents a largely Mormon and affluent area of Phoenix – the eastern suburbs. Flake attended Brigham Young University and then worked in Africa at various Mormon and other philanthropic organizations. He then served as Executive Director of Goldwater Institute in Arizona. He was elected to the US House in 2000 and has been reelected easily every time sense then. Congressmen Flake is known for being “rogue” on many issues voting frequently against his own party. For instance, he was one 15 republicans to vote in favor of ending DADT, but he is opposed to gay marriage. Flake is strong anti-abortionist being highly regarded and rated by Right to Life. He is most known, though, for his ardent opposition to pork barrel spending and earmarks going so far as publishing a newsletter with what he thinks is the pork barrel project of week. He is also known for instituting what is called “the flake hour” in which he forces congressmen to explain why congress should pay for those pet projects; he is strong fiscal conservative who voted against Bush’s TARP. Flake is a fierce fighter for privacy along with one of the few republicans to come at against the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq voting against Obama’s surge in Afghanistan.

Ted Cruz
Picture Courtesy of Wikipedia

Ted Cruz was born in Calgary, Canada to a couple that had met at the University of Texas Austin. His mom was from Delaware and his father was a Cuban immigrant who had fought in the Cuban Revolution for Castro but would later come to oppose the Castro regime. Ted Cruz proved to be an excellent debater and parliamentarian wining or placing in many high level competitions while attending Princeton undergrad or Harvard Law where he received a J.D. Magna Cum Laude. After a number of years working in private practice, teaching at UT Austin, or working various federal Government jobs, Mr. Cruz became the Solicitor General of Texas, a position he held until 2008. While serving as Solicitor General, Cruz successfully defended the state in many cases that showcased his and his state's social conservatism such as the Ten Commandments on the grounds of the state capital or “under God” in the Pledge of Allegiance.

Sunday, December 23, 2012

Freshmen Introductions


The following are some of the freshmen of the 113th Congress. There are 12 new senators: 1 independent, 3 republicans, and 8 democrats. There will be 2 additional senators joining the list as well to replace former senators Jim DeMint (R-SC) and Daniel Inouye (D-HW). Inouye’s replacement is yet to be decided while DeMint is being replaced by Tim Scott. These 14 senators will be introduced to FPP’s readers in the next week in a new segment called Freshmen Introductions. I have also listed the names of members of the house to be who won seats currently held by members of the other party.

US Senators
Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)
Jeff Flake (R-AZ)

Joe Donnelly (D-IN)
Chris Murphey (D-CT)
Mazie Hirono (D-HI)
Martin Heinrich (D-NM)
Angus King (I-ME)
Tim Kaine (D-VA)
Ted Cruz (R-TX)
Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
Deb Fischer (R-OK)
Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND)

Change of Party  House Freshmen
Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ1)
Tom Cotton (R-AR4)
Ami Bera (D-CA7)
Julia Brownley (D-CA26)
Raul Ruiz (D-CA36)
Scott Peters (D-CA52)
Patrick Murphy (D-FL18)
Joe Garcia (D-FL26)
Tammy Duckworth (D-IL8)
Brad Schneider (D-IL10)
Bill Foster (D-IL11)
Cheri Bustos (D-IL17)
Jackie Walorski (R-IN2)
Andy Barr (R-KY6)
John Delaney (D-MD6)
Rick Nolan (D-MN8)
Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH1)
Ann McLane Kuster (D-NH2)
Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY18)
Dan Maffei (D-NY24)
Chris Collins (R-NY27)
Richard Hudson (R-NC8)
Mark Meadows (R-NC11)
George Holding (R-NC12)
Markwayne Mullin (R-OK2)
Keith Rothfus (R-PN12)
Pete Gallego (D-TX23)

Monday, November 5, 2012

Mobilize


Tomorrow is the day; the race has been run; the fight has been fought; it comes down to you, information, and your vote.

You, yeah you the reader, are the voter – the one who makes the difference. This means you have to vote. So, go vote tomorrow! But, it also means if you have an issue you strongly support or a candidate you like today and tomorrow is your one and only chance in election season 2012 to show the electorate your passion. If you have time go volunteer, if you can’t I am sure there is a phonebank somewhere  that would love your help. If that’s doesn't float your boat. There is always social media; you can tweet, write on your timeline, or do whatever social media thing you do (like blog). It is all for one simple idea GOTV (GET OUT THE VOTE) which brings up another point make sure that everyone else votes as well; the government is designed to represent the people, so the people need to voice their opinions.

Information is also pivotal, and, as much as I want you to go vote, I don’t want the blind leading the blind. So, please look up the candidates; find out what they stand for. For the ballot proposals and mileages, learn the pros and cons of each. I know so many people that when they get to things like Circuit Court Judge or City Council they will just simply vote for the man or women with cooler name. Don’t do that, please, look them up so when you show up it you can fill in bubbles and leave. We are the only ones who can institute the change we want to see in the world. SO PLEASE GO VOTE!

Sunday, November 4, 2012

Momentum versus the Map

By: William Snyder, Managing editor Fourth Party Politics

On Tuesday the country comes to a crossroads, and one of two dramatically different paths will be taken. The race for 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue features two distinctly different views of how government should play a role in the lives of citizens. One party wants to make government so small the only thing it can regulate is a women’s vagina. The other wants to continue to rebuild the economy after the financial crisis and raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans to pay for the programs that most benefit middle class Americans. With a falling unemployment rate and job creation for over 30 consecutive months, the daunting task of removing a sitting president becomes even more difficult for Governor Romney. Only once since 1900 has a political party been taken out of power after holding just one term in the White House, Jimmy Carter and the Democrats in 1980. Will Mitt Romney’s say or do anything approach to be elected President gain the trust of swing voters in Toledo and Orlando or will voters come to realize Mr. Romney’s history of being a chronic political flip-flopper and cause a trust issue with moderates in the end?  

It has become clear that following the first debate in Denver last month Mitt Romney had the momentum while President Obama had the map and his campaign was trying to run out the clock up by three late in the fourth quarter. Enter Hurricane Sandy as a true October surprise. The President was pushed into the national spotlight to deal with an historic crisis which for a period of two days completely froze the race and the momentum. Up until last week, when the race was frozen in place, this race was starting to shape up a lot like that of the 1980 election when Reagan made a huge surge in the closing weeks of the campaign to overtake Jimmy Carter. Following the aftermath of Sandy, polling has been somewhat limited but suggests a race closer to that of 2004 with an incumbent narrowly edging out the victory. Based on all of the public polling in the last week the challenge still lies with the Romney campaign to demonstrate they can get to 270 electoral votes. It is still clear that the map and the math favor the President because he has more paths to 270 and they are much clearer paths. In all likelihood the race comes down to two states; Virginia, and Ohio. If Governor Romney wants any chance what so ever he must win Virginia and recent polls have shown the President with a slim margin of error lead. The simplest path for Romney is to hold the south and win Ohio then all he has to do is take New Hampshire where the trusted local poll conducted by WMUR has the race tied. However it appears that Ohio is becoming more of a stretch for the Romney campaign. Ohio is still the simplest way and maybe the most competitive but I think the reason they are looking at other options like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota is because they know they can’t count on Ohio. One of the things you don’t hear the pundits talking about is how drastically Mitt Romney is going to over preform John McCain across the board in both solid blue and solid red states which is why national tracking polls show such a tight race. The last few days polls have been released showing Romney gaining ground in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota, but the question is can he really win there? Personally I think those states will be tight races possibly within 3 or 4 points but it’s Lucy and the football close and not realistic for a Romney win in those states.

Predictions
President:
Obama 49.2% 277 electoral votes
Romney 48.9% 261 electoral votes
Johnson 1.3%
Stein 0.3%
Goode 0.2%
Anderson 0.1%

State with closest winning margin:
Virginia. I have been back and forth between Virginia and Colorado on this one for the last couple of weeks. Recent polling suggests former congressman and constitution party presidential nominee Virgil Goode could have an impact in his home state and take votes away from Romney. A recent Washington Post/ABC poll had Goode polling in 2% of the vote

Senate:
Current: D51 R47 I2 (both caucus with Democrats)
Prediction: D51 R47 I2 (both expected to caucus with Democrats)
Democrats: Pick-ups: MA, ME, IN Holds: CA, CT, DE, FL, HI, MD, MI, MN, MO, MT, NJ, NM, NY, OH, PA, RI, VA, VT, WA, WV
Republicans Pick-ups: ND, WI Holds: AZ, MS, NE, NV, TN, TX, UT, WY,

House:
Current: D191 R241
Prediction: Democrats net 4-10 seats and Republicans keep overwhelming control of the house.

One would think Democrats would have the upper hand in more house elections after 2010, but state Republican parties had control of redistricting in many states which will make it a much tougher task for Democrats to take back the house in the coming years. The untold tale of this election is that Republicans and tea partyers are likely to strengthen their already strong hold on state legislature.

Yours in Democracy, -William  Snyder

Thursday, November 1, 2012

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

North Dakota Senate Race Preview


North Dakota’s Democratic Senator Kent Conrad is retiring after serving 4 and 2/3 terms. He is known as a moderate Democrat, who has consistently performed well in a dark red state, and his retirement may end the democrat’s hold on that seat. He won his last election with 69% of the vote; a feat that will be impossible for the victor, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican, to pull off this year. The race pits Democrat Heidi Heitkamp, former North Dakota Attorney General, against Rick Berg, a member of the U.S. House of Representatives. The most recent polling is from Mason Dixon and it shows Berg (47%) with a two point lead over Heitkamp (45%). This lead is within the margin of error and may be a sign that Heitkamp can win, especially when there is 8% missing as either third party candidates or undecided. The last update of this article was with a poll from July and gave Berg a nine percent edge. Just because Mr. President is not doing so swell does not mean the Senate Candidates are facing the same trouble. This race is no longer a case of fading blue with 6 days left it is now a case of a purple fight.

Sunday, October 28, 2012

Political Theory Prediction


 It is time to visit the land of political prediction heaven. This article will stay here and then try to explain why we don’t live and vote there. The article explains the way the predictions are calculated, and then the next article will be about why I can assure you my predictions will be inaccurate.
The idea behind the article is that each election is predictable and can be guessed hundreds of years in advance assuming a two party political system and making four simple assumptions. Assumption one, an incumbent President will always be reelected; this doesn’t always happen just ask Jimmy Carter about that. Two, every president’s successor will be a member of the opposite political party. Not always true either, George H.W. Bush is thankful for that. Third is the idea that the opposing party will always win the midterm election. This is not true always either because the Republicans actually gained seats in 2002 while George W. Bush was in office. Fourth is the assumption that if a party wins the presidency they will also benefit from the coat tail effect; and subsequently, they will win control of both the House and that year’s Senate Class Election. If all four of the assumptions were never broken, a pattern for each group emerges. In these patterns, R stands for Republicans and D for Democrats. For the President the pattern is easy, it is in fact the pattern that all the others are based off of according to our assumptions; it is DDRRDD... In the senate, each class follows the pattern of DDDDRRRRDDDD… The pattern in the US House of Representatives is DDRDRRDR…
This would dictate that Obama gets reelected and Democrats gain control of the House and also maintain control of Senate Class One which they should, hypothetically, lose control of in the 2030 Election. Hypothetically, the 2030’s will be a great decade for the Republican Party while the 2020’s will be great for the Democrats. The Republican will regain Senate Class Two in 2014 and lose it in 2038. The Democrats will regain Senate class three in 2022. The party of the president is also guaranteed a full control of congress during their first two years of their presidency and of their second term. In the long term, it is a washout which makes perfect sense; an equal rule of Democrats and Republicans is the long run equilibrium of politics.

President
                Democratic (2009-2017, 2025-2033, 2041-2049, 2057-2065)
                Republican (2017-2025, 2033-2041, 2049-2057, 2065-2073)
Senate Class One
                Democrats (2007-2031, 2055-2073)
                Republicans (2031-2055)
Senate Class Two
                Democrats (2009-2015, 2039-2063)
                Republicans (2015-2039, 2063-2087)
Senate Class Three
                Democrats (2023-2047, 2071-2095)
                Republicans (2011-2023, 2047-2071)
US House of Representatives
                Democrats (2013-2015, 2019-2021, 2023-2027, 2029-2031, 2035-2037, 2039-2043, 2045-2047, 2051-2053, 2055-2059, 2061-2063, 2067-2069, 2071-2073)
                Republicans (2011-2013, 2015-2019, 2021-2023, 2027-2029, 2031-2035, 2037-2039, 2043-2045, 2047-2051, 2053-2055, 2059-2061, 2063-2067, 2069-2071)