Momentum versus the Map

By: William Snyder, Managing editor Fourth Party Politics

On Tuesday the country comes to a crossroads, and one of two dramatically different paths will be taken. The race for 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue features two distinctly different views of how government should play a role in the lives of citizens. One party wants to make government so small the only thing it can regulate is a women’s vagina. The other wants to continue to rebuild the economy after the financial crisis and raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans to pay for the programs that most benefit middle class Americans. With a falling unemployment rate and job creation for over 30 consecutive months, the daunting task of removing a sitting president becomes even more difficult for Governor Romney. Only once since 1900 has a political party been taken out of power after holding just one term in the White House, Jimmy Carter and the Democrats in 1980. Will Mitt Romney’s say or do anything approach to be elected President gain the trust of swing voters in Toledo and Orlando or will voters come to realize Mr. Romney’s history of being a chronic political flip-flopper and cause a trust issue with moderates in the end?  

It has become clear that following the first debate in Denver last month Mitt Romney had the momentum while President Obama had the map and his campaign was trying to run out the clock up by three late in the fourth quarter. Enter Hurricane Sandy as a true October surprise. The President was pushed into the national spotlight to deal with an historic crisis which for a period of two days completely froze the race and the momentum. Up until last week, when the race was frozen in place, this race was starting to shape up a lot like that of the 1980 election when Reagan made a huge surge in the closing weeks of the campaign to overtake Jimmy Carter. Following the aftermath of Sandy, polling has been somewhat limited but suggests a race closer to that of 2004 with an incumbent narrowly edging out the victory. Based on all of the public polling in the last week the challenge still lies with the Romney campaign to demonstrate they can get to 270 electoral votes. It is still clear that the map and the math favor the President because he has more paths to 270 and they are much clearer paths. In all likelihood the race comes down to two states; Virginia, and Ohio. If Governor Romney wants any chance what so ever he must win Virginia and recent polls have shown the President with a slim margin of error lead. The simplest path for Romney is to hold the south and win Ohio then all he has to do is take New Hampshire where the trusted local poll conducted by WMUR has the race tied. However it appears that Ohio is becoming more of a stretch for the Romney campaign. Ohio is still the simplest way and maybe the most competitive but I think the reason they are looking at other options like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota is because they know they can’t count on Ohio. One of the things you don’t hear the pundits talking about is how drastically Mitt Romney is going to over preform John McCain across the board in both solid blue and solid red states which is why national tracking polls show such a tight race. The last few days polls have been released showing Romney gaining ground in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota, but the question is can he really win there? Personally I think those states will be tight races possibly within 3 or 4 points but it’s Lucy and the football close and not realistic for a Romney win in those states.

Predictions

President:
Obama 49.2% 277 electoral votes
Romney 48.9% 261 electoral votes
Johnson 1.3%
Stein 0.3%
Goode 0.2%
Anderson 0.1%

State with closest winning margin:
Virginia. I have been back and forth between Virginia and Colorado on this one for the last couple of weeks. Recent polling suggests former congressman and constitution party presidential nominee Virgil Goode could have an impact in his home state and take votes away from Romney. A recent Washington Post/ABC poll had Goode polling in 2% of the vote

Senate:
Current: D51 R47 I2 (both caucus with Democrats)
Prediction: D51 R47 I2 (both expected to caucus with Democrats)
Democrats: Pick-ups: MA, ME, IN Holds: CA, CT, DE, FL, HI, MD, MI, MN, MO, MT, NJ, NM, NY, OH, PA, RI, VA, VT, WA, WV
Republicans Pick-ups: ND, WI Holds: AZ, MS, NE, NV, TN, TX, UT, WY,

House:

Current: D191 R241
Prediction: Democrats net 4-10 seats and Republicans keep overwhelming control of the house.

One would think Democrats would have the upper hand in more house elections after 2010, but state Republican parties had control of redistricting in many states which will make it a much tougher task for Democrats to take back the house in the coming years. The untold tale of this election is that Republicans and tea partyers are likely to strengthen their already strong hold on state legislature.

Yours in Democracy, -William  Snyder