Tea Time (leave the partiers at home)

Here the round up of articles to enjoy with dinner and tea this Evening

1. As G.O.P. Governors Gather, Prescriptions and Whispers for 2016 -- Jeff Zeleny, NY Times
2. Romney Blames Loss on Obama’s ‘Gifts’ to Minorities and Young Voters -- Ashley Parker, NY Times
3. Senator-Elect Angus King of Maine to Align Himself With Democrats -- Johnthan Weisman, NY Times
4. David Petraeus affair scandal tests Washington code -- Anna Palmer, Politico 
5. Montana tells lawmaker gold is for fools --  Kevin Cirilli, Politico
6. Obama: Donovan to take on recovery role -- Bryon Tau, Politico
7. BP to Plead Guilty to Felonies, Pay $4.5 Billion in Spill -- Tom Fowler, Wall Street Journal

Forward Unto Dawn

By Craig Petersen FPP contributor

Where am I? This isn't what I remembered. I was molded into a being by those who knew what was what. They made me idealistic. They gave me visions of a past that was scarred, smudged around the corners, but something that at its core was meant to be glorified -- Something that, despite its condition, was something to be proud of: they told me the future was shining, that there may come a day when we as mortal men and women may achieve earthly enlightenment. This future, one that is inexorable in nature, is one that would be to the benefit of all mankind. It is one in which all mankind would actively strive toward. But as I'm looking around today at what has unfolded, I can see only a present decimated by those who wish to live in meticulous absurdity in an effort to score those few extra points for their own sides. There has been no observable progress towards to betterment of humankind. From where I stand, it would appear that those groups who would pull humanity to a previous destination in time are far stronger than they should ever morally be.

There were days in our past that were bad, and there were days in our past that were good. It seems as though a polarizing effect has caused men and women to change their preconceptions of truth, morality, and ethics with reckless abandon. This particular fact holds no sway over me. However, it does bother me that some are allowing this change to jeopardize the enlightenment of others. There was a day when intelligence was idolized, when love for fellow man was preached to crowds, when acceptance of all people was said to be equivalent in importance to food or drink. Religion has always been a proponent of love, peace, and happiness; now, it is used as a weapon by those who would discriminate, judge, and diminish others. Mob mentalities have given courage to the weak man and allow him to speak heinously about their fellow humans. These attitudes and behaviors serve only to limit our potential as creatures of Earth.

To the Viewers of FPP:

Good Friday morning! The Fourth Party Politics team has posted over 30 articles in a span of two weeks leading up to Tuesday’s election. It may have taken us longer to get where we are today than we first planed, but we finely got there after ten months. The FPP team is still recuperating, but the election has provided us with much to talk about in the coming weeks and months and we want to say thank you for staying with us throughout the campaign, and please, stay tuned.

Sincerely,

Jason Colella & William Snyder
FPP's Founders

Tea Time

Here’s your Thursday night roundup of tea time links.

For those who want to look at the results; both of these allow you to see results overall, county by county, States, and by Congressional Districts.

New York Times
CNN

Articles:

For Romney, All His Career Options Are Still Open. Except One. -- by Michael Barbaro, New York Times

Handicapping the 2016 presidential field -- by Chris Cillizza, Washington Post

Angus King, still undecided, doesn’t rule out joining GOP -- by Ed O'Keefe, Washington Post

As Florida Vote Count Drags On, G.O.P. Says It Looks Good for Obama -- by Lizette Alvarez, New York Times

Exclusive: Clinton would dominate 2016 Iowa caucuses, PPP shows -- by Alexander Burns, Politico

Barack Obama's second-term Cabinet -- by Edward-Isaac Dovere, Politico

Live Blog: Election Night Coverage

Obama: 303
Romney: 206
270 To Win

BREAKING NEWS - Obama wins the election after claiming victory in Ohio.

Tonight the country comes to a crossroads, and one of two dramatically different paths will be taken. The race for 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue features two distinctly different views of how government should play a role in the lives of citizens. One party wants to make government so small it will drown in the bathtub. The other wants to continue to rebuild the economy after the financial crisis and raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans to pay for the programs that most benefit middle class Americans. With a falling unemployment rate and job creation for over 30 consecutive months, the daunting task of removing a sitting president becomes even more difficult for Gov. Romney. Only once since 1900 has a political party been taken out of power after holding just one term in the White House, Jimmy Carter and the Democrats in 1980.

1:01 - We can now give the President the other electoral vote from Maine's 2nd congressional district and award him Virginia’s 13 electoral votes. Also Mitt Romney will carry Alaska and its 3 electoral votes. Tammy Baldwin has also been declared the winner in the Wisconsin senate race; she will be the first openly gay senator.

12:11 - Obama picks up Colorado and its 9 EV

11:56 -- Democratic Senators Cantwell (WA) and Feinstein (CA) are reelected.

11:53 -- Henrich (D) of New Mexico is elected to US Senate while Flake (R) is victorious in Arizona.

11:48 - Obama picks up Nevada and its 6 EV

11:16 - BREAKING NEWS - Obama wins Ohio and is re-elected president

11:15 - Romney wins North Carolina, Obama takes Iowa

11:02 - The time is now 11 o’clock in the east and new polls have just closed on the west coast. We can project Romney will carry the state of Idaho and its 4 electoral votes. Also we can project that President Obama will carry the states of California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington totaling 78 electoral votes.
Remaining states yet to be called:
Ohio
Florida
Colorado
Michigan
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Iowa
Nevada
Alaska

11:00 --Tim Kaine wins the Senate race in Virginia replacing fellow democratic Webb.

10:47 - We can now project that President Obama will carry the state of Minnesota which has 10 electoral votes.

10:40 - Mitt Romney wins Arizona and its 11 electoral votes.

10:21 -- Republicans pick up NE. Senate State reducing Dems gains to two on the night.

10:12 -- BREAKING NEWS: Romney wins Missouri.

10:11 -- Senator Claire McCaskill is reelected over Todd Akin in Missouri Senate Race.

10:04 - The time is now 10 o’clock in the east and new polls have just closed totaling 23 electoral votes. We can project Romney will carry the states of Montana and Utah totaling 9 electoral votes. Also standby polls are closed in Nevada and Iowa and we characterize those races as too early to call.

9:51 --BREAKING NEWS: Elizabeth Warren wins Ma. Senate bringing Dem up to plus three for the night.

9:50 -- BREAKING NEWS: Obama wins New Hampshire.

9:48 --BREAKING NEWS: Joe Donnelly wins Indiana Senate bringing Dem up to plus two for the night.

9:44 -- Klobuchar (D) of Mn., Brasso (R) of WY., Cruz (R) of TX., Brown (D) of Ohio, and Whicker (R) of MS. all can be called for winning their senate races. So far the Democrats have picked up one senate seat. We can call Democratic victory in NH Gubernatorial and Republican victory in North Dakota Gubernatorial

9:31 - BREAKING NEWS: Obama wins Wisconsin

9:25 – BREAKING NEWS: We can comfortably call the State of Pennsylvania for Obama and FPP can report Democrats will retain the Senate.

9:16 -- Michigan can be called for Obama while North Dakota can be called for Romney. More Senate races can be called Manchin (D) of West Virginia, Nelson (D) of Florida, Stabenow of Michigan, Gillbrand (D) of New York, Whitehouse (D) of Rhode Island, Mendez of New Jersey, Casey in Pennsylvania and Murphy (D) of Connecticut.

9:02 - The time is now 9 o’clock in the east and a slew polls have just closed totaling 153 electoral votes. We can project Romney will carry the states of Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska (4 of 5) South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming totaling 62 electoral votes. Also we can project that President Obama will carry the states of Maine (3 of 4) New York and New Mexico totaling 37 electoral votes.

8:48 – We can call the Maine Senate Race to Angus King, an independent who will caucus with the democrats; he was expected to win and won fairly easily. Senator Cardin (D) of Maryland has been projected victorious along with Senator Carper (D) of Delaware.

8:31 - Polls just closed moment’s ago in Arkansas were we can project it six electoral votes will go for Mitt Romney.

8:15 – Florida is moving toward Obama . NC is currently in Obama corner with 9% reporting while Virginia currently shows a Romney lead. Obama also has a sizable lead in Ohio with 1% percent reporting also he is winning the white working vote there. Bob Corker is projected winner of TN. Senate.

8:13 - Projection: Romney wins Georgia 16EV

8:05 - The time is now 8 o’clock in the east and a slew polls have just closed totaling 172 electoral votes. We can project Romney will carry the states of Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Tennessee totaling 33 electoral votes. Also we can project that president Obama will carry the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Washington, DC totaling 72 electoral votes.

Election Day Breakfast Menu

Here’s your Tuesday morning primer of breakfast links.

The Real Loser: Truth - Kevin Kruse, The New York Times
Obama, Finishes Where He Started - Sam Stein, The Huffington Post
Election Overtime: A Winless Wednesday – Elizabeth Titus, Politico
What to Watch for in Ohio - Rosalind Helderman, The Washington Post
Turnout, Turnout, Turnout - Michael Tomasky, The Daily Beast

The Obama Landslide Scenario - Steve Kornacki, salon.com

Ready for a Recount? -  Jeffrey Toobin, The New Yorker
Ron Paul Questions Value of Federal Aid - Pete Kasperowicz, The Hill
Romney's Quiet Rise - Peggy Noonan, Wall Street Journal
What Obama and Romney Should be Worrying About - Bill McKenzie, The Dallas Morning News

Demographic Voter Makeup: Virginia

*Editor’s note: This is the last installment in a series that will break down the demographic statistics of voters in all six of FPP’S designated swing states plus the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.

Virginia was one of the original 13 colonies and birthplace of four of the first five Presidents. Virginia is an important battleground state with 8,001,024 people which makes it the 12th largest state with 13 electoral votes. From the first election to 1808, the state had the most electoral votes. Barack Obama defeated John McCain there by a margin of 53% to 46% in 2008. Much like North Carolina, Virginia has seen drastic demographic changes making it far more likely to vote for a Democrat then in previous elections; it has voted Republican in every election since 1952 with the exception of 2008 and 1964. The state has two Democratic Senators, a Republican Governor, an equally divided State Senate, and a heavily Republican State House.

Population

Population: 8,001,024 (2010)
State rank: 12^th
Change since 2000 census: up 13.0%
Most populated cities
Virginia Beach 437,994
Norfolk 242,803
Chesapeake 222,209
Arlington CDP 207,627
Household Income
Under $15K: 10.4%
$15K-$50K: 31.2%
$50K-$100K: 31.6%
$100K-$200K: 20.8%
Over $200K: 6.1%
Median Income: $60,539

Read more after the jump

Alternate Voices

By: Katie Beemer, Guest Contributor Fourth Party Politics
 

We have heard overwhelming amounts of information from the major party candidates this season, but almost nothing about the third party candidates. While this is not unusual, it is important to also take into consideration their voice. What do they believe that makes them different? Here’s some basic info on each of these candidates:

Third Party Ramifications

 By: Nathan Wood, Political Contributor Fourth Party Politics

On November 6, 2012, we will know who will be the leader of the free world for the next four years. But, this is not the only thing that will happen as a result of the presidential election. This year, third party candidates not only have the power to steal voters from either side of the aisle, but they have a chance to have a stronger future influence in the American political system.

Mobilize

Tomorrow is the day; the race has been run; the fight has been fought; it comes down to you, information, and your vote.

You, yeah you the reader, are the voter – the one who makes the difference. This means you have to vote. So, go vote tomorrow! But, it also means if you have an issue you strongly support or a candidate you like today and tomorrow is your one and only chance in election season 2012 to show the electorate your passion. If you have time go volunteer, if you can’t I am sure there is a phonebank somewhere  that would love your help. If that’s doesn't float your boat. There is always social media; you can tweet, write on your timeline, or do whatever social media thing you do (like blog). It is all for one simple idea GOTV (GET OUT THE VOTE) which brings up another point make sure that everyone else votes as well; the government is designed to represent the people, so the people need to voice their opinions.

Information is also pivotal, and, as much as I want you to go vote, I don’t want the blind leading the blind. So, please look up the candidates; find out what they stand for. For the ballot proposals and mileages, learn the pros and cons of each. I know so many people that when they get to things like Circuit Court Judge or City Council they will just simply vote for the man or women with cooler name. Don’t do that, please, look them up so when you show up it you can fill in bubbles and leave. We are the only ones who can institute the change we want to see in the world. SO PLEASE GO VOTE!

Demographic Voter Makeup: Ohio

*Editor’s note: This is part eleven in a series that will break down the demographic statistics of voters in all six of FPP’S designated swing states plus the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Later Today Virginia

It is hard to find a credible path to the White House for Mitt Romney without Ohio. No Republican has ever won the White House without winning the Buckeye State. Since 1944, Ohioans have sided with the losing candidate only once when they voted for Nixon in 1960, making Ohio a true bellwether state. Ohio, like much of the industrial Midwest, has lost significant population resulting in a loss of about a third of its electoral votes since the 1960s. 2010 marks the fifth consecutive Census where Ohio has lost electoral votes. Mitt Romney will have to overcome the vastly improved economy and his opposition to the auto bailout in order to win Ohio’s 18 electoral votes. One out of every eight jobs in Ohio is directly tied to the auto industry. Democrats in Ohio remain motivated due to a victory last year that struck down a bill restricting workers’ rights to collectively bargain. In 2008 Barack Obama defeated John McCain by 5 points, 52% to 47%. In all likelihood whoever wins Ohio wins the presidency.

Population: 11,536,504 (2010)

State rank: 7th
Change since 2000 census: Up 1.6%
Most populated cities
Columbus 787,033
Cleveland 396,815
Cincinnati 296,943
Toledo 287,208
Household Income
Under $15K: 14.5%
$15K-$50K: 38.5%
$50K-$100K: 31.3%
$100K-$200K: 13.3%
Over $200K: 2.5%
Median Income: $46,838
Home Value

Under $100K: 30.2%

$100K-$300K: 60.3%
Over $300K: 9.5%
Median Value: $136,900

Read more after the Jump

Demographic Voter Makeup: Nevada

*Editor’s note: This is part ten in a series that will break down the demographic statistics of voters in all six of FPP’S designated swing states plus the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Tomorrow Ohio and Virginia

Nevada has seen the largest percentage in population growth over the past decade with its population tripling since 1980. This population growth gives Nevada one more electoral vote than it had in 2008 (now up to 6) when it voted overwhelming for Barack Obama by a margin of 55% to 43%. However, the economic outlook has declined considerably since President Obama won the Silver State four years ago. Nevada has the nation’s highest rates of home foreclosure and unemployment. The advantage for the president is a large Hispanic voter base and a huge push for early voting. Nevada is the only state to ever cast just two electoral votes. In the 1864 election, just after gaining statehood, the third elector was snowbound and because the new state government had yet to be called into session, there was no way to select a replacement elector.

Population

Population: 2,700,551 (2010)

State rank: 35^th
Change since 2000 census: up 35.1%
Most populated cities
Las Vegas 583,756
Henderson 257,729
Reno 225,221
Paradise CDP 223,167
Household Income
Under $15K: 9.4%
$15K-$50K: 35.1%
$50K-$100K: 34.9%
$100K-$200K: 17.2%
Over $200K: 3.3%
Median Income: $55,322

Read more after the jump

Bridges: Acts of Political Absurdity

By: Jason Colella, Co-Owner and Sr. Political Editor Fourth Party Politics

Picture Courtesy of Forbes

I would bet when I said the word "bridge" you thought this would be another boring article about Alaska and its infamous bridge to nowhere. If you did, I forgive you. That’s not where this going. However, welcome to the Wolverine State, the great state of Michigan, and what has to be some of the bloodiest and most expensive ballot proposals in the entire country - Proposition 5 and 6 (six is where most of the money is being spent).

The only spot in the US where America is north of Canada is in downtown Detroit. There is a bridge and tunnel connecting the cities of Detroit and Windsor there. The bridge is the Ambassador Bridge completed in 1929, and it also holds the distinction of being the only privately owned border crossing between the US and Canada. The State of Michigan and the government of Canada would like to build a new bridge to cross the Detroit River because it then could connect to a Canadian highway 401 and reduce traffic issues in Detroit and mainly in Windsor while also helping to increase trade between the two countries growing both economies.

Read more after the jump

Momentum versus the Map

By: William Snyder, Managing editor Fourth Party Politics

On Tuesday the country comes to a crossroads, and one of two dramatically different paths will be taken. The race for 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue features two distinctly different views of how government should play a role in the lives of citizens. One party wants to make government so small the only thing it can regulate is a women’s vagina. The other wants to continue to rebuild the economy after the financial crisis and raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans to pay for the programs that most benefit middle class Americans. With a falling unemployment rate and job creation for over 30 consecutive months, the daunting task of removing a sitting president becomes even more difficult for Governor Romney. Only once since 1900 has a political party been taken out of power after holding just one term in the White House, Jimmy Carter and the Democrats in 1980. Will Mitt Romney’s say or do anything approach to be elected President gain the trust of swing voters in Toledo and Orlando or will voters come to realize Mr. Romney’s history of being a chronic political flip-flopper and cause a trust issue with moderates in the end?  

It has become clear that following the first debate in Denver last month Mitt Romney had the momentum while President Obama had the map and his campaign was trying to run out the clock up by three late in the fourth quarter. Enter Hurricane Sandy as a true October surprise. The President was pushed into the national spotlight to deal with an historic crisis which for a period of two days completely froze the race and the momentum. Up until last week, when the race was frozen in place, this race was starting to shape up a lot like that of the 1980 election when Reagan made a huge surge in the closing weeks of the campaign to overtake Jimmy Carter. Following the aftermath of Sandy, polling has been somewhat limited but suggests a race closer to that of 2004 with an incumbent narrowly edging out the victory. Based on all of the public polling in the last week the challenge still lies with the Romney campaign to demonstrate they can get to 270 electoral votes. It is still clear that the map and the math favor the President because he has more paths to 270 and they are much clearer paths. In all likelihood the race comes down to two states; Virginia, and Ohio. If Governor Romney wants any chance what so ever he must win Virginia and recent polls have shown the President with a slim margin of error lead. The simplest path for Romney is to hold the south and win Ohio then all he has to do is take New Hampshire where the trusted local poll conducted by WMUR has the race tied. However it appears that Ohio is becoming more of a stretch for the Romney campaign. Ohio is still the simplest way and maybe the most competitive but I think the reason they are looking at other options like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota is because they know they can’t count on Ohio. One of the things you don’t hear the pundits talking about is how drastically Mitt Romney is going to over preform John McCain across the board in both solid blue and solid red states which is why national tracking polls show such a tight race. The last few days polls have been released showing Romney gaining ground in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota, but the question is can he really win there? Personally I think those states will be tight races possibly within 3 or 4 points but it’s Lucy and the football close and not realistic for a Romney win in those states.

Predictions

President:
Obama 49.2% 277 electoral votes
Romney 48.9% 261 electoral votes
Johnson 1.3%
Stein 0.3%
Goode 0.2%
Anderson 0.1%

State with closest winning margin:
Virginia. I have been back and forth between Virginia and Colorado on this one for the last couple of weeks. Recent polling suggests former congressman and constitution party presidential nominee Virgil Goode could have an impact in his home state and take votes away from Romney. A recent Washington Post/ABC poll had Goode polling in 2% of the vote

Senate:
Current: D51 R47 I2 (both caucus with Democrats)
Prediction: D51 R47 I2 (both expected to caucus with Democrats)
Democrats: Pick-ups: MA, ME, IN Holds: CA, CT, DE, FL, HI, MD, MI, MN, MO, MT, NJ, NM, NY, OH, PA, RI, VA, VT, WA, WV
Republicans Pick-ups: ND, WI Holds: AZ, MS, NE, NV, TN, TX, UT, WY,

House:

Current: D191 R241
Prediction: Democrats net 4-10 seats and Republicans keep overwhelming control of the house.

One would think Democrats would have the upper hand in more house elections after 2010, but state Republican parties had control of redistricting in many states which will make it a much tougher task for Democrats to take back the house in the coming years. The untold tale of this election is that Republicans and tea partyers are likely to strengthen their already strong hold on state legislature.

Yours in Democracy, -William  Snyder

Demographic Voter Makeup: Colorado

*Editor’s note: This is part nine in a series that will break down the demographic statistics of voters in all six of FPP’S designated swing states plus the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Later Today Nevada

Colorado has only voted Democratic in two of the last ten presidential elections and only three times since WWII. In 2008 and in the 2010 midterms Independents and women voted overwhelmingly in favor of Democrats, which lead to surprise Democratic wins in the governor’s and senate races. With a growing Hispanic population, Colorado is now considered in play for Democrats when it never would have been in the past. The state’s population has been growing, and now has nine electoral votes up from six in the 1960s. The Centennial State voted for Barack Obama by 54%-45% margin over John McCain

Population

Population: 5,029,196 (2010)
State rank: 22^nd
Change since 2000 census: up 16.9%
Most populated cities
Denver 600,158
Colorado Springs 416,427
Aurora 325,078
Fort Collins 143,986
Household Income
Under $15K: 11.2%
$15K-$50K: 33.3%
$50K-$100K: 32.3%
$100K-$200K: 18.8%
Over $200K: 4.4%
Median Income: $56,334

Read more after the jump

Demographic Voter Makeup: Pennsylvania

*Editor’s note: This is part eight in a series that will break down the demographic statistics of voters in all six of FPP’S designated swing states plus the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Tomorrow Colorado and Nevada

Pennsylvania was the second state admitted to the Union, officially becoming a state in December 1787. The Keystone State has participated in all 56 presidential elections. Pennsylvania is generally considered a swing state, but it has voted Democratic in the last five elections. In 2008, Barack Obama beat John McCain by about 11%. While still an important prize with 20 electoral votes, Pennsylvania, like many industrial northern states, has seen mass population decline in recent decades. Peaking at 38 electoral votes in the early 1900’s, the state has lost about 45 percent of its electoral votes in 80 years.

Population

Population: 12,702,379 (2010)
State rank: 6^th
Change since 2000 census: up 3.4%
Most populated cities
Philadelphia 1,526,006
Pittsburgh 305,704
Allentown 118,032
Erie 101,786
Household Income
Under $15K: 13.2%
$15K-$50K: 36.8%
$50K-$100K: 31.5%
$100K-$200K: 15.0%
Over $200K: 3.5%
Median Income: $50,028

Read more after the jump

Victorious Victors?: SDS and The Port Huron Statement

By Jason Colella Co-Owner and Sr. Political Editor of FPP

The Students for a Democratic Society’s (SDS) Manifesto, the Port Huron Statement, is celebrating its 50th anniversary; and consequently, the University of Michigan just wrapped a two day conference talking about the statement then and its implication for today. It helped define and frame an entire era, student movement, the New Left itself, and to some extent conservatives. The Statement was born out of SDS which was founded by Al Harbor in 1960 in Ann Arbor. By 1962, it was a major Student Org on campus and by 1962 it was headed up by the editor of the Michigan Daily – Tom Hayden. Hayden was a well-spoken radical with infinite passion for social justice and a sincere desire for societal change. Earlier that year the preeminent student civil rights origination Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee (SNCC) approached SDS to help write a manifesto for the movement still in its infancy and it was decided that Hayden should draft the document. The draft was then brought to an SDS convention in Port Huron, Michigan where it was edited section by section by groups. This very process showcased the overarching point of the statement itself – participatory democracy. Hayden then edited it into a final copy.

Demographic Voter Makeup: North Carolina

*Editor’s note: This is part seven in a series that will break down the demographic statistics of voters in all six of FPP’S designated swing states plus the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Later Today Pennsylvania

North Carolina is usually a dark a red state that has only voted blue twice since 1964 in 1976 and 2008; the fact the state voted for Obama in 2008 is an ever so small glimmer of hope for a 2012 win for Democrats. The Tar Heel State was the 2nd closest race of the 2008 election (behind Missouri); Barack Obama defeated John McCain by a mere 14,000 votes. The state has definitely changed demographically and will make it more likely for a Democratic win, but it will be a longshot. The state is nearing 10 million in population making it an electoral powerhouse with 15 electoral votes. Like we learned about New Hampshire in an earlier preview the state legislature leans strongly conservative, while statewide residents support a liberal governor; however, the democrats will most likely lose control of the governorship this year.

Population

Population: 9,535,483 (2010)
State rank: 10^th
Change since 2000 census: up 18.5%
Most populated cities
Charlotte 731,424
Raleigh 403,892
Greensboro 269,666
Winston-Salem 229,617
Household Income
Under $15K: 15.1%
$15K-$50K: 39.4%
$50K-$100K: 29.8%
$100K-$200K: 12.8%
Over $200K: 2.9%
Median Income: $45,131

Read more after the jump

To Stagnate is to Die

Guest commentary; Tropovich

Stability is a fun concept to ponder. It is completely understandable to desire stability in the sense that it is the opposite of a state of chaos. What is not understandable is why someone would desire stability in the sense that it is to stop outside influences, change.

It dawned on me embarrassingly recently that stability in government takes on both meanings. Politicians and leaders have a vested interest in a populous that is not in a state of chaos or mayhem. It makes themselves, their legacies, and their jobs much easier to perform. Politicians and leaders, on both sides of the aisle I might add, also want a set system through which they may govern. While it is not my intent to direct this towards conservatives in a negative way, it may appear to be so to some.

Conservatism is the desire to maintain a status quo- a set limitation that will stay the same no matter what comes along. It's a perfectly fair ideology. It's human nature to want things to stay the way they were at some earlier period. What I didn't understand until now what that this status quo wasn't just dealing with new issues from the same perspectives or on the same precedents as before, it was to maintain a stationary government- a government that would be unchanging, from now until oblivion. That's a quite profound idea. Is it even possible to create something that deals with multiple groups of people yet continues to be the same that it was before? People, ergo ideas, die off, new ones are born, any number of nature changes may occur that alter the shape of a government.

Perhaps it depends on perspective. If you look at the United States government as a whole, very little has changed in its 200 years of existence. No revolution has occurred that has dramatically changed to shape of our governing body. That piece of parchment in the National Archives is still the basis on which we do everything. However, if you look at individual sections of our government, you may see something very different. The central government has grown more and more powerful, the right to vote has been expanded, the way in which campaigns are financed and run has undergone significant change in the last few years even.

If you have read my first post on this blog site, this next piece of information may seem quite confusing, but I promise to clarify. Conservatives can win. In the sense that they have a clearly defined goal for how American politics should be handles, conservatives can win. They can pass bills, write amendments, and rule cases that creates a government that stands the test of time. This government could very well hold true to its originating doctrine. This cannot be done by Liberals who accept consistent change. As fellow blogger analogized, government is like a water-wheel to liberals. As time goes on, there's something new at the top of the wheel. Conservatives want a level plane or some sort of square. So to clarify my statements here with my earlier ones, conservatives can win, but this is only because they have a set goal. They will not win because it is not human nature to stay in one place. At any given time, one person will always be happier or more comfortable than another. Trying to maintain society at any given point, the lower peoples will distress, even violently if they must.

The point of this article was to understand the difference between stability for protection and stability for stagnation. A people must always be willing to move forward, accept the ideas of others, incorporate them into society, and move forward again. This is how a government, a society, even an individual can only dream to remain relevant tomorrow.

Demographic Voter Makeup: Michigan

*Editor’s note: This is part six in a series that will break down the demographic statistics of voters in all six of FPP’S designated swing states plus the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Tomorrow North Carolina and Pennsylvania

Michigan served as the boyhood home of Mitt Romney where his father was a popular three term governor in the 1960s. The Great Lakes State joined the Union in January 1837 and voted primarily Republican until the Great Depression. Before becoming the Democratic-leaning state it is today the state voted Republican from 1972 through 1988. In 2008, Barack Obama defeated John McCain by a 57% to 41% margin. Michigan was the only state to lose population in the 2010 Census. It will lose one electoral vote, giving it 16 for the next three presidential elections. This is the fourth consecutive Census where Michigan has lost electoral votes. The government bailout of the auto industry which Mitt Romney strongly opposed should make it rather difficult for the one time native son to be singing Hail to the Victors on Election Night.

Population

Population: 9,883,640 (2010)
State rank: 8th
Change since 2000 census: Down 0.6%
Most populated cities
Detroit 713,777
Grand Rapids 188,040
Warren 134,056
Sterling Heights 129,699
Household Income
Under $15K: 14.1%
$15K-$50K: 38.2%
$50K-$100K: 30.8%
$100K-$200K: 14.2%
Over $200K: 2.7%
Median Income: $47,461

Read more after the jump

Demographic Voter Makeup: Wisconsin

*Editor’s note: This is part five in a series that will break down the demographic statistics of voters in all six of FPP’S designated swing states plus the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Later Today Michigan

 

Wisconsin gained statehood in May 1848 and has voted democratic in each election since 1988, although the 2000 and 2004 races were extremely close. In the 2008 election Barack Obama won easily by a 56% to 42% margin over John McCain. The addition of Wisconsin congressman Paul Ryan to the ballot as a Vice Presidential candidate doesn’t necessarily swing Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes into Mitt Romney’s column, but it does bring Wisconsin back into play this cycle. Ultimately Romney’s name sits atop the ticket not that of the native son so Romney will have to make his own case in the end. The recent recall attempt of Gov. Scott Walker means that both parties have an energized ground game and Election Day might ultimately come down to which camp can turnout its voters.

Population

Population: 5,686,986 (2010)
State rank: 20^th
Change since 2000 census: up 6.0%
Most populated cities
Milwaukee 594,833
Madison 233, 209
Green Bay 104,057
Kenosha 99,218
Household Income
Under $15K: 11.5%
$15K-$50K: 37.2%
$50K-$100K: 34.5%
$100K-$200K: 14.3%
Over $200K: 2.6%
Median Income: $51,257

Read more after the jump

Friday Morning Breakfast Menu

Here’s your Friday morning roundup of breakfast links.

Candidates Make Final Pitch - Rucker & Markon, Washington Post
Chrysler Executive Lashes Out At Trump - Bernie Woodall, Reuters
Advisers Say Romney Momentum Is ‘Myth” - Janet Hook, The Wall Street Journal
Sandy's Link to Climate Change - Tom Zeller, The Huffington Post
Independents won’t save Mitt - Steve Kornacki, Salon.com
My Favorite Republican – Gov. Jennifer Granholm, CurrentTV/Politico
The Case for Obama - E.J. Dionne, Time
Which Side's Polls Reflect Reality - Reid Wilson, Natl Jrnl
The Blackmail Caucus - Paul Krugman, The New York Times
How Far Obama Has Fallen - Peggy Noonan, The Wall Street Journal

Demographic Voter Makeup: New Hampshire

*Editor’s note: This is part four in a series that will break down the demographic statistics of voters in all six of FPP’S designated swing states plus the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Tomorrow Wisconsin and Michigan

New Hampshire, the Granite State, is known for an independent spirit; the political history of the state looks somewhat similar. It has been a blue state since 2004, but if we don’t include 2000 New Hampshire has voted for Democrats since 1992. The biggest hurdle in the state for President is Obama is that not only does Romney have a residence in the state he spends a large share of his time at, but it was there that Mitt began to showcase that he was the true frontrunner after a long series of other candidates spiking in the polls and the extremely close race in Iowa. New Hampshire also has a very interesting state government where they have progressive state wide leaders, but their legislature is heavily conservative. With just a few days left the Granite State is a hard rock to crack on what way it will swing but its four electoral votes could be an important factor in the end.

Population

Population: 1,316,470 (2010)
State rank: 42^nd
Change since 2000 census: up 6.5%

Most populated cities

Manchester 109,565
Nashua 86,494
Concord 42,695
Derry 33,109
Dover 29,987
Household Income
Under $15K: 8.7%
$15K-$50K: 30.9%
$50K-$100K: 34.3%
$100K-$200K: 21.7%
Over $200K: 4.5%
Median Income: $62,629

Read more after the jump

Political Tea Time (No Tea Party Involved)

Here’s your Thursday evening roundup of tea time links.

The politics of Friday’s jobs report – Neil Irwin, Washington Post
Romney forces see Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota ripe for turning red – Dan Balz, Jerry Markon and Paul Kane, Washington Post
Senate 5: Todd Akin says he’s in the game – David Catanese, Scott Wong and Kate Nocera, Politico
Cory Booker to Newark residents: Come on over – Katie Glueck, Politico
Bloomberg Endorses Obama, Citing Climate Change – Raymond Hernandez, New York Times
How Does Bernie Sanders Do It? – John Nichols, The Nation

Demographic Voter Makeup: Iowa

*Editor’s note: This is part three in a series that will break down the demographic statistics of voters in all six of FPP’S designated swing states plus the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Later Today New Hampshire

For the Obama campaign there is a sentimental attachment to the Hawkeye State which launched his historical campaign into the spotlight with an improbable victory over Hilary Clinton in the race for the Democratic nomination four years ago. The importance of its caucuses, which kick off the nominating process every election cycle, give the citizens of Iowa oversized influence on who ultimately gets elected president. Iowa gained statehood in December 1846. It currently leans Democratic in presidential races only voting for one Republican in the last 6 elections; Barack Obama easily defeated John McCain by 54% to 44% in 2008. Prior to 1988, the state mostly voted Republican, choosing a candidate from that party all but five times from the Civil War through that year. The Hawkeye State’s 6 electoral votes will be key in the quest for 270 next Tuesday night.

Population

Population: 3,046,355 (2010)
State rank: 30^th
Change since 2000 census: up 4.1%
Most populated cities
Des Moines 203,433
Cedar Rapids 126,326
Davenport 99,685
Sioux City 82,684
Household Income
Under $15K: 12.4%
$15K-$50K: 39.1%
$50K-$100K: 33.6%
$100K-$200K: 12.6%
Over $200K: 2.3%
Median Income: $48,457

Read more after the jump