Demographic Voter Makeup: Minnesota

*Editor’s note: This is part two in a series that will break down the demographic statistics of voters in all six of FPP’S designated swing states plus the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Tomorrow Iowa and New Hampshire

A Republican hasn’t won Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes since Richard Nixon swept 49 states away from George McGovern in 1972. In what has been a solid Democratic state in the last nine presidential elections, recent polling has Mitt Romney siting just outside the margin of error and within striking distance with less than one week until Election Day.  The Obama campaign sent super surrogate and former President Bill Clinton to Minneapolis yesterday where he held two events trying to stop the bleeding. In 2008, Barack Obama defeated John McCain by 10%. Let’s take a closer look at the demographic make-up of the Land of 10,000 Lakes.
 

Population
Population: 5,303,925 (2010)
State rank: 21^st
Change since 2000 census: up 7.8%
Most populated cities
Minneapolis 382,578
St. Paul 285,068
Rochester 106,769
Duluth 86,265
Household Income
Under $15K: 10.6%
$15K-$50K: 33.3%
$50K-$100K: 34.5%
$100K-$200K: 17.6%
Over $200K: 4.0%
Median Income: $56,704

Read more after the jump

North Dakota Senate Race Preview

North Dakota’s Democratic Senator Kent Conrad is retiring after serving 4 and 2/3 terms. He is known as a moderate Democrat, who has consistently performed well in a dark red state, and his retirement may end the democrat’s hold on that seat. He won his last election with 69% of the vote; a feat that will be impossible for the victor, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican, to pull off this year. The race pits Democrat Heidi Heitkamp, former North Dakota Attorney General, against Rick Berg, a member of the U.S. House of Representatives. The most recent polling is from Mason Dixon and it shows Berg (47%) with a two point lead over Heitkamp (45%). This lead is within the margin of error and may be a sign that Heitkamp can win, especially when there is 8% missing as either third party candidates or undecided. The last update of this article was with a poll from July and gave Berg a nine percent edge. Just because Mr. President is not doing so swell does not mean the Senate Candidates are facing the same trouble. This race is no longer a case of fading blue with 6 days left it is now a case of a purple fight.

Demographic Voter Makeup: Florida

*Editor’s note: This is part one in a series that will break down the demographic statistics of voters in all six of FPP’S designated swing states plus the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Later today Minnesota

After the circus that was the 2000 election, Florida will forever be known as the most famous battleground state in presidential politics. This year the outcome will depend on how heavily Hispanic voters turnout in favor of the President. The question becomes will Mitt Romney be able to chip into the Hispanic voter base and overcome Paul Ryan’s proposals to end Medicare as we know it in a state full of seniors, or will president Obama retain a state that is trending heavily towards conservatives? Romney’s strength will be in the northern most parts of Florida and in the panhandle while President Obama will do well in the south and around the Miami area. Aside from the breakdown of Hispanic voters whoever wins the I-4 corridor most likely wins the sunshine state and its 29 electoral votes.

Population

Population: 18,801,310
State rank: 4th
Change since 2000 census: up 17.6%
Most populated cities
Jacksonville 821,784
Miami 399,457
Tampa 335,709
St. Petersburg 244,769
Household Income
Under $15K: 13.1%
$15K-$50K: 39.7%
$50K-$100K: 30.2%
$100K-$200K: 13.5%
Over $200K: 3.5%
Median Income: $47,051

Read more after the jump

Wednesday Morning Breakfast Menu

Here’s your Wednesday morning roundup of breakfast links.
Why Romney Can’t Win Pennsylvania - Nate Cohn, The New Republic
Ohio, Women, and Turnout the Key - Dan Rather, USA TODAY
Ryan Budget Would Hammer Aid - Andrew Restuccia, Politico
Clinton Calls out Romney on Climate Change - Byron Tau, Politico
Romney goes off-road with the Truth - Dana Milbank, The Washington Post
Obama, Christie United by Sandy - Maureen Dowd, The New York Times
Romney Has a Christie Problem - John Cassidy, The New Yorker
Climate Crisis - Al Gore, Current TV
Ryan, Akin One in the Same - Roxana Badin, Salon.com

*NOTE Some of the more reliable polling firms have stopped their daily tracking polls for the time being in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. It is unknown if they will be able to put surveys in the field to get an acceptable sample by next Sunday. Polling samples in states like Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio will have to be watched rather carefully as large power outages have effected these states.

New polls with just 6 days until Election Day:

General Election: CBS/NY Times Obama 48% Romney 47% (+1%)

General Election: ABC/Wash Post Romney 49% Obama 48% (+1%)
Florida: SurveyUSA Tied at 47%
Ohio: SurveyUSA Obama 48% Romney 45% (+3)
Massachusetts Senate: Suffolk/7News Warren 53% Brown 46% (+7)
North Dakota Senate: Mason-Dixon Berg 47% Heitkamp 45% (+2)

October Surprise Garners New Meaning

Courtesy: NASA

Contributed By: William Snyder; Co-Founder Fourth Party Politics
 
The term October Surprise has garnered a whole new meaning in the wrath of Hurricane Sandy. Sandy has devastated people along the eastern seaboard and knocked out power to over 8.5 million homes from North Carolina to Maine and as far west as Michigan. The Presidential campaign has temporarily been put on pause with just one week remaining until Americans cast their ballots to decide the next leader of the free world.

It remains to be seen how Sandy will effect next Tuesday’s election especially in down ballet races in coastal communities in New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut. Will the candidates be able to return to battleground Virginia, where its 13 electoral votes could decide next week’s election, or is the campaigning in Virginia now going to be decided by each campaigns ground game? New questions arise out of a natural disaster in the middle of a hotly contested Presidential election. How do the candidates continue to campaign amidst a disaster? With the death toll now at 50 and expected to rise in the coming days, how will people view politicians courting votes in Ohio and the Midwest while 50 million plus people continue to feel to effects this historic perfect storm?

Tomorrow Gov. Romney is expected to go back to the campaign trail while President Obama will continue to play the role of President and tour the devastation in New Jersey with Gov. Chris Christie. It is expected that the earliest President Obama will regain his campaign schedule is on Thursday. Until then, Former President Clinton and Vice President Joe Biden will be darting across the country making the closing arguments for the Obama campaign in a race that is now simply too close to call.

BREAKING NEWS

Update: 11:11 P.M. Hurricane Sandy Death toll mounts to 12

Update: 10:21 P.M. Reports of Trading floor of New York Stock Exchange under water confirmed to be FALSE. CNN retracts earlier statement claims twitter was to blame.

Update: 9:56 P.M. CNN is reporting three feet of standing water on the floor of the NYSE.

BREAKING NEWS: Romney Camp temporarily suspends active campaigning in wake of Hurricane Sandy. The campaign has cleared its complete public schedule for both Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan through at least Tuesday. The President announced early this morning that he was canceling a scheduled stop to the Orlando area this morning and returning back to the White House to help manage the crisis. Former President Bill Clinton was supposed to join Mr. Obama at the Orlando Stop.

Monday Breakfast Menu

Here’s your Monday morning roundup of breakfast links.

Obama's Endgame - Jason Horowitz, Washington Post
Advantages in the Heartland - E.J. Dionne, Washington Post
Akin Learns to Watch His Words - John Eligon, New York Times
It's all About Turnout - Ed Kilgore, Washington Monthly
Sandy Threatens East Coast - Jennifer Peltz and Allen Breed, AP
Tea Partiers Now Define the GOP - Sean Wilentz, NY Daily News
How Romney got Back in the Game - Anna Palmer and John Bresnahan, Politico
Strange Scenarios - Alexander Burns and Emily Schultheis, Politico

New swing state polls with just 8 days until Election Day:
Florida: PPP has Obama leading Romney 49%-48% (+1)
Virginia: The Washington Post has Obama up 51%-47% (+4)
Ohio: Gravis A dead heat in the Buckeye State

BREAKING NEWS

BREAKING NEWS: The New York Stock Exchange will not open on Monday in response to the threat posed by Hurricane Sandy. Earlier in the day it was reported that trading would take place on Monday.

Political Theory Prediction

 It is time to visit the land of political prediction heaven. This article will stay here and then try to explain why we don’t live and vote there. The article explains the way the predictions are calculated, and then the next article will be about why I can assure you my predictions will be inaccurate.

The idea behind the article is that each election is predictable and can be guessed hundreds of years in advance assuming a two party political system and making four simple assumptions. Assumption one, an incumbent President will always be reelected; this doesn’t always happen just ask Jimmy Carter about that. Two, every president’s successor will be a member of the opposite political party. Not always true either, George H.W. Bush is thankful for that. Third is the idea that the opposing party will always win the midterm election. This is not true always either because the Republicans actually gained seats in 2002 while George W. Bush was in office. Fourth is the assumption that if a party wins the presidency they will also benefit from the coat tail effect; and subsequently, they will win control of both the House and that year’s Senate Class Election. If all four of the assumptions were never broken, a pattern for each group emerges. In these patterns, R stands for Republicans and D for Democrats. For the President the pattern is easy, it is in fact the pattern that all the others are based off of according to our assumptions; it is DDRRDD... In the senate, each class follows the pattern of DDDDRRRRDDDD… The pattern in the US House of Representatives is DDRDRRDR…

This would dictate that Obama gets reelected and Democrats gain control of the House and also maintain control of Senate Class One which they should, hypothetically, lose control of in the 2030 Election. Hypothetically, the 2030’s will be a great decade for the Republican Party while the 2020’s will be great for the Democrats. The Republican will regain Senate Class Two in 2014 and lose it in 2038. The Democrats will regain Senate class three in 2022. The party of the president is also guaranteed a full control of congress during their first two years of their presidency and of their second term. In the long term, it is a washout which makes perfect sense; an equal rule of Democrats and Republicans is the long run equilibrium of politics.

President

                Democratic (2009-2017, 2025-2033, 2041-2049, 2057-2065)

                Republican (2017-2025, 2033-2041, 2049-2057, 2065-2073)

Senate Class One

                Democrats (2007-2031, 2055-2073)

                Republicans (2031-2055)

Senate Class Two

                Democrats (2009-2015, 2039-2063)

                Republicans (2015-2039, 2063-2087)

Senate Class Three

                Democrats (2023-2047, 2071-2095)

                Republicans (2011-2023, 2047-2071)

US House of Representatives

                Democrats (2013-2015, 2019-2021, 2023-2027, 2029-2031, 2035-2037, 2039-2043, 2045-2047, 2051-2053, 2055-2059, 2061-2063, 2067-2069, 2071-2073)

                Republicans (2011-2013, 2015-2019, 2021-2023, 2027-2029, 2031-2035, 2037-2039, 2043-2045, 2047-2051, 2053-2055, 2059-2061, 2063-2067, 2069-2071)